470
FXUS62 KTBW 181310
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
910 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms have begun to develop along the
southwest Florida coast this morning as area of deeper moisture,
precipitable water around 1.9 to 2 inches, moves northeast into
this area. Elsewhere, we`re seeing fair dry weather at this time,
but with daytime heating and the sea breeze we`ll see more
isolated to scattered convection develop and move inland this
afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances will remain over the
interior and especially southern interior and southwest Florida
where deeper moisture will reside today. Convection will wind down
this evening with fair dry weather overnight. Overall the current
forecast looks good with no adjustments needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 910 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but isolated to scattered
convection could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions, especially
at the southern TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Light winds will
become westerly at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon then diminish and
become light and variable later this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level cutoff low over the southeastern U.S. will slowly
lift out over the next few days, though troughing will remain over
the eastern U.S. through the rest of the week and part of the
weekend before ridging eventually builds in. At the surface, a
fairly weak pressure pattern will remain in place with light onshore
wind flow becoming northeast by the end of week and continue through
early next week as weak high pressure builds in.

For today and Thursday, expect a similar rainfall pattern as
yesterday, with some relatively drier air in place and the highest
rain chances for the interior and southwest Florida region. Friday
looks to bring some even drier air (again, relatively speaking), so
although the best rain chances will be for those same areas, overall
coverage should be lower. As we head into the weekend and early next
week, there really isn`t much to get excited about as moisture
values remain about the same and so we can expected isolated to
scattered convection each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will continue through the next couple of days with the
sea breeze developing near the coast each afternoon. High pressure
will then build in to our north Friday through the weekend, turning
winds to the northeast. No headlines are expected through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  90  75 /  20  10  40  10
FMY  93  76  92  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  94  75  92  74 /  40  20  50  20
SRQ  91  75  90  75 /  20  20  40  20
BKV  91  72  90  71 /  30  10  30  10
SPG  91  80  90  79 /  20  10  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley