Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
248 FXXX10 KWNP 190031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 00-03UT 3.67 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 1.33 2.00 06-09UT 3.00 1.67 2.33 09-12UT 2.67 1.67 3.00 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 2.67 1.67 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.33 2.33 21-00UT 2.00 1.33 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) levels on 19-21 Sep. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are likely with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) activity on 19-21 Sep.