Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
574 FXXX10 KWNP 191241 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 19 1240 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4.67 (G1-Minor). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 06-09UT 2.00 1.67 2.33 09-12UT 3.33 1.67 3.00 12-15UT 4.00 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 3.33 1.67 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.33 2.33 21-00UT 2.00 1.33 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 19 Sep following periods of sustained southward Bz in the solar wind. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) levels on 19-21 Sep. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) activity over 19-21 Sep.