107
FXXX10 KWNP 141231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 14-Jun 16 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 14-Jun 16 2024

             Jun 14       Jun 15       Jun 16
00-03UT       1.00         1.33         4.00
03-06UT       1.33         2.00         3.67
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         3.33
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         3.33
12-15UT       1.33         2.67         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         2.67         2.33
18-21UT       1.33         3.67         2.00
21-00UT       1.33         3.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2024

              Jun 14  Jun 15  Jun 16
S1 or greater   10%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 13 2024 1645 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2024

              Jun 14        Jun 15        Jun 16
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1-Minor
Radio Blackouts) through 16 Jun.