394
FXXX10 KWNP 170031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 17-Jun 19 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 17-Jun 19 2024

             Jun 17       Jun 18       Jun 19
00-03UT       1.67         2.67         2.33
03-06UT       1.67         4.00         2.00
06-09UT       2.00         4.00         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         3.00         2.00
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.33         2.33         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         3.33         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 17-Jun 19 2024

              Jun 17  Jun 18  Jun 19
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 17-Jun 19 2024

              Jun 17        Jun 18        Jun 19
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over
the next three days.