240
FNUS75 KTFX 161455
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Kading Cabin RX...Forest Service
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
855 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A widespread late spring rain and mountain snow event is expected
to arrive overnight tonight and linger through the evening hours
on Tuesday. Expect rain and snow to begin to fall at the burn site
around 2100-2300 Sunday evening and persisting through the
overnight hours. Monday morning will possibly bring a break in the
precipitation, but expect round of rain and snow showers to
return by late morning or early afternoon along with a 30% chance
of a thunderstorm, with evening bringing a return to mostly dry
conditions. Rain and snow showers will return on Tuesday during
the afternoon and evening hours.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Snow showers likely
                    and chance of rain showers.
CWR.................50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....30-35.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph.
Haines Index........

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Snow showers in the
                    morning, then rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................95 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....38-43.
Min humidity........84-89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
                    then chance of rain showers and snow showers
                    overnight.
CWR.................60 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....28-33.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph.
Haines Index........

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and snow showers in the morning, then
                    rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....46-51.
Min humidity........56-61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ludwig
Requested by...Mandy Alvino
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416225.0/TFX
.DELDT 06/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mandy.alvino@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov