422
FXUS63 KTOP 241116
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning patchy fog mainly over far east central into far
  northeastern Kansas areas - worst will be around sunrise.

- Isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms possible
  for this afternoon.

- Fall temperatures in place this week.

- Uncertain rain chances into the weekend in association with a
  tropical storm system mainly just ESE of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Currently, WV and UA pattern suggest a mid to upper level trough
continues to work east of the area. Another elongated vort lobe is
working through the northern Plains into the central Plains with a
broad western ridge in place with anticyclonic flow over the Pacific
northwest region. A weak surface front is currently situated north
of the area into southern SD and northern NE poised to gradually
work into the area around midday into the this afternoon.

Early this morning, fog has formed over southeastern KS into east
central and far northeastern areas. Expecting fog this morning to
remain patchy but could briefly become dense over some of the low
lying areas near rivers and lakes. The overall moisture profile over
the area suggests only shallow saturation will setup through
sunrise. With high clouds working into the are from the northwest in
association with an upper trough, do expect that widespread fog
formation would be difficult to support.

Later this morning into the early afternoon, isolated to scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible (20-30% chance)
across much of northeastern into east central areas as a weak cold
front and upper trough work through the area. An elongated vort lobe
works into the area by this afternoon. As midlevel frontogenetical
forcing increases, could support light to moderate showers over the
area with embedded thunderstorms due to instability in the
midlevels. Expect these showers and storms to remain fairly high
based with several thousand feet of subcloud dry air in place. This
may act to increase downdraft winds at times but not expecting
anything to be severe. This works through by early evening.

A fall pattern remains in place keeping highs in the 70s and lows
into the 50s for the forecast period as no major baroclinic systems
appear to impact the region. Uncertainty remains with a couple
tropical systems that do appear to work into the lower MS Valley and
southeastern CONUS. The general trends suggest the forecast area
remains on the western periphery of any tropical systems Friday
through the weekend. Therefore, rain chances may be in the forecast
for eastern zones but not anticipating anything more than light
amounts of precipitation and around 20-30% POPs at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Fog mixing out in a couple of hours. Most impacts have been
regarding the KTOP terminal with mostly ground fog impacts. The weak
surface front arrives around midday into the afternoon with a slight
veering of the winds taking place. Could see isolated to
scattered SHRA or embedded TS by the afternoon period. Right now
have gone with mention of SHRA in PROB30 groups for the
approximate timeframes. Should be hazard free for the balance of
the period after showers or embedded storms pass into early
evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake/65