786
FXUS63 KTOP 230542
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers ending west to east through tonight, may linger in
  far eastern Kansas into Monday.

- Chance for scattered showers Tuesday.

- Temperatures near to a little below normal for the week with
  an unsettled pattern late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Satellite imagery today show the upper trof over the central
high plains making slow progress eastward. Cooler air with the
associated front has moved across much of the forecast area, but
enough lift remains to bring showers into the cooler air, with
highs holding in the 60s. As the drier air gets deeper from
north to south, showers will be relegated to the southern
counties, where they may redevelop into Monday as the last bit
of lift with the upper system moves through. Kept temperatures
on the cool side of the mean on Monday, with clouds likely slow
to clear. Once they do, with light winds Monday night and
recent rain, could see some fog or haze in low spots with near
normal lows in the 50s.

Another clipper of sorts drops southward across the area on
Tuesday into Wednesday, and with the upper low right overhead,
may be enough instability to generate showers and possibly a
rumble of thunder before quickly moving south. This should keep
us on the subsident dry side for Wednesday with highs once again
in the 70s.

The forecast beyond Wednesday is highly variable and will likely
continue to be, as several features interact and impact each
other through the period. GFS and EC suggest the low that
clipped us Tuesday is stalled just to the south, then
retrograded back westward by a tropical system that is
forecast to develop in the gulf. This would have the potential
to draw moisture back westward into our area for anytime between
late Thursday and through the weekend. There are also timing
differences in the upper trof that comes in out of the northern
tier to usher these systems eastward. For now, most ensemble
guidance indicates near to slightly below normal temperatures
and increased chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

MVFR stratus lingers around the TOP and FOE terminals and will
likely stay nearby through at least 18Z. Latest trends suggest
TOP could see cigs drop into MVFR levels for a while, mainly
around 15Z while MVFR cigs remain at FOE. Confidence in where
the MVFR line will be is not high. VFR conditions are likely by
22Z, however, and should be the rule throughout this forecast at
MHK as the upper system slowly moves east with light mainly
north- northeast winds at all sites.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Poage