784
FXUS63 KTOP 151937
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered storms could develop this afternoon through tonight.
 A few stronger storms could produce damaging wind gusts or
 small hail.

-Hot and humid conditions continue through early next week.

-A cold front looks to bring more storms to the area late
 Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

At midday, an outflow boundary from early morning convection across
northern KS was draped across the western and southern portion of
the forecast area, as evident on visible satellite imagery. By 19Z,
the boundary had become a bit more diffuse on satellite and in sfc
obs with temps and dew points more uniform. Winds, however, were
still slightly backed near I-70 and north, which is also where
mesoanalysis shows an instability and theta-e gradient. That
lends evidence to the existence of the boundary still located in
the area. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough is moving
over western KS this afternoon. A LLJ will increase as the
trough axis approaches late this afternoon and especially this
evening. Am still thinking widely scattered storms could develop
late this afternoon, perhaps near the lingering sfc boundary,
with a slightly better chance this evening as the jet kicks in.
The higher theta-e air mass is expected to advect north and east
with time into the evening, but storms that develop will do so
in an environment with 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Shear still
appears to be on the weaker side with around 30 kts of deep
layer shear present into tonight. Stronger storms will be
capable of damaging wind gusts, near quarter sized hail and
heavy rainfall.

The trough axis moves east of the area tomorrow morning. Strong
southerly flow continues across the region through early next
week, keeping conditions warm with highs in the low to mid 90s.
A mid-level ridge expands over the eastern and central CONUS
through Tuesday, reinforcing hot and humid conditions. A cold
front in Nebraska and western KS will nudge toward the CWA
Tuesday afternoon and night. Convergence along the front looks
strong enough to aid in thunderstorm development late Tuesday.
That will be our next chance for precipitation. However,
uncertainty remains in how far south the front will extend.
Most models show it stalling across northeast KS on Wednesday
before moving back to the north as a warm front on Thursday.
Temperatures should be slightly cooler with the boundary in the
area midweek.

The eastern CONUS ridge then looks to expand over the area late in
the week. NBM maintains occasional low end POPs through the end of
the forecast period, but confidence is not currently high on
thunderstorm timing and severity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly surface winds will continue to veer to the south early
this TAF period, and will gust over 20 kts at times this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are then expected in
northeastern KS this evening and tonight. Chances remain fairly
low (20-30%) near terminals due to expected limited coverage.
Thus, have not included TS in this update because of low
confidence.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey