515
FXUS63 KTOP 151731
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more chance for a few severe storms this afternoon/evening,
mainly north of I-70.

- Warm temperatures with highs in the 90s continue through early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Line of sub-severe thunderstorms continues to push east across the
area this morning. With 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, have seen a few pulses
of taller cores, supporting some brief small hail and 40 mph gusts.
However effective shear is only on the order of 20 kts, keeping
storms outflow dominant and any notable severe threat at bay.
Expecting a steady downward trend through sunrise as the line lifts
northeast across the remainder of the area. A few more brief pulses
of small hail and 40 mph gusts remain possible, but will be more the
exception than the rule.

Behind this initial line, the main upper shortwave will approach
later this afternoon, lifting a warm front north through the area.
Some uncertainty in exactly how fast this front does lift north,
with the HRRR a faster/northern outlier. Most other guidance has the
front somewhere between I-70 and the KS/NE border. This warm front
placement will play a role in both afternoon temperatures and PM
severe weather chances. South of the front, breezy south winds and
deep boundary layer mixing will allow temperatures to climb into the
mid 90s. Any storms that develop within this environment would pose
a risk for gusty winds and small hail, but overall a lack of surface
convergence should tend to limit development. Along and north of the
warm front, cloud cover and more southeasterly winds will keep
temperatures slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 80s to near
90. However the more backed winds will lengthen shear profiles,
while richer/deeper boundary layer moisture will increase the
instability. This would be a more favorable environment for severe
thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main
hazards, though can`t completely rule out a brief tornado where
winds are backed southeast in far northern Kansas.

Sunday through Tuesday, there is a good consensus on drier but
rather hot conditions as anomalous ridging builds across the
eastern CONUS. High confidence in temperatures reaching the mid
90s across much of the area each day. Dewpoints don`t look
overly oppressive across the area, generally in the mid/upper
60s, but will still be enough to push heat indices to around
100. By mid- week, a deeper upper trough over the western CONUS
will push a cold front southeast towards the area. Still not
very confident how far southeast this front will actually get.
The eastern ridge blocks eastward progression of the western
trough, resulting in the front losing its upper support by
Wed/Thu. So we might not see a push of truly cooler air.
Nevertheless, frontal convergence plus deep moisture transport
from the Gulf will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances for mid-week. This precipitation may be what keeps
temperatures slightly cooler than the early week, though still
near or a bit above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly surface winds will continue to veer to the south early
this TAF period, and will gust over 20 kts at times this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are then expected in
northeastern KS this evening and tonight. Chances remain fairly
low (20-30%) near terminals due to expected limited coverage.
Thus, have not included TS in this update because of low
confidence.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Teefey