641
FXUS63 KTOP 241934
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late
  this afternoon and early evening.

- Mild temperatures with highs in 70s and lows in the 50s.

- Precipitation less likely for this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A compact, fast-moving upper-level wave is quickly diving
southeast across Iowa and Missouri. Cloud cover has quickly
cleared across most of the area early this afternoon. This has
allowed temperatures to rise quickly into the 70s. These warmer
surface temperatures will combine with rather cool temperatures
aloft to create an unstable atmospheric profile with steep lapse
rates and several hundred joules of CAPE. A cumulus field is
already developing in far southeast Nebraska. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible (20-40%) this afternoon
and evening across eastern Kansas. Given the aforementioned
parameters, some robust thunderstorms with brief gusty winds and
small hail are possible (10-20%) before sunset. Once the sun
sets we will quickly stabilize and any ongoing thunderstorms
should quickly weaken.

After this wave exits the area surface high pressure will build
in and a quiet and cool night will be in store with lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s. The rest of the week looks dry and mild
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

The track of the tropical system that is anticipated to swing
into the Midwest later this weekend has shifted further and
further east with each model run. Most models have all the
moisture associated with this system off to our east now. Some
ensemble runs have low chances of precipitation for our far
eastern counties this weekend, but these probabilities will
likely continue to decrease over the next several runs given the
latest trends. Overall, we are in for a very nice stretch of
weather!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. The Topeka
terminals have the best chance at seeing any precipitation
today, but due to the scattered nature of activity, will hold of
on the mention of thunder in the TAF until confidence is higher.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones