Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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909 FXUS63 KTOP 172332 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 632 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday. - Temperatures remain above normal through Friday. - The best chance for rain is expected Saturday and Sunday. Parts of the forecast area could see around a half to over one inch of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 At 19Z, a mid level trough was located over centered over northern Utah and extending southeast into Colorado and New Mexico. Southerly winds continue to maintain dew points in the mid 60s across central and eastern Kansas this afternoon. A shortwave lifting northward tonight into early Wednesday will keep the potential for convection in north central Kansas overnight into Wednesday morning. Shear is forecast to remain less than 30kts with elevated instability of 900-1200 J/kg. Thus severe potential will be low tonight. On Wednesday afternoon, clearing will allow for temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The boundary layer is forecast to recover in the late afternoon hours to around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and shear less than 30kts. Downdraft CAPE of 1000-1400 J/kg would lead to some isolated strong wind gusts from the stronger storms during the late afternoon into the early evening hours. One limiting factor for late Wednesday will the lack of forcing or lift, severe threat will be conditional on storm development. Morning convection may linger into Thursday morning before dissipating. Minor shortwave ridging over Kansas should keep much of the area dry until later in the afternoon hours. For Thursday afternoon the boundary layer destabilizes with CAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg, shear however is less than 30kts. Forecast soundings in northeast Kansas show inverted V soundings with downdraft CAPE of 1700 J/kg by late afternoon. If storms are able to develop, strong wind gusts will be the main hazard. Thursday the thermal axis extends into northeast Kansas and mixing down from 700mb would yield highs in the low to mid 90s. The next chance for convection will be Friday into the weekend as the upper trough in the west progresses toward the Plains, the low level jet will increase as well as moisture transport into Kansas. A boundary may be present which will focus nocturnal convection with the potential for locally heavy rainfall mainly in north central and northeast Kansas Friday night into Saturday, then across much of the area Saturday night through Sunday as the upper trough ejects out into the Plains. Models diverge a bit on Sunday with the progression of the trough as well as its location in the central Plains. Thus lower confidence in the precipitation forecast Sunday night into Monday. A frontal boundary moving southward on Sunday will bring cooler temperatures in the 70s to the area lasting into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to dominate. The main concern is the potential for weak convection to make its way east into the area in the 10Z to 17Z period. MHK has the most potential for this but confidence is too low for a mention. Impacts would likely be quite low if it would occur. Have included some gusts in the late period with deep mixing again anticipated. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Record high temperature data for September 19: Record maximum temperature Forecast maximum temperature Topeka 99, set in 2022 95 Concordia 101, set in 2022 91 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...Poage CLIMATE...Poage