577
FXUS63 KTOP 230752
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers in east-central Kansas early today.

- Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Tuesday.

- Rain potential returns late Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Upper trough was moving east into central and western Kansas early
this morning with scattered showers over the southeastern quarter of
Kansas. Cloud cover remains persistent over much of the local area
with temperatures still in the mid 50s to around 60 for most spots,
not much cooler than Sunday afternoon values. The trough finally
passes early this evening, taking a somewhat more neutral tilt
through the day. This should continue to bring some light showers to
east-central Kansas into the early afternoon with significant
moisture depths decreasing by late afternoon. Instability may be just
enough for a few thunderstorms in this activity. Clouds will still
be enough to keep highs in eastern areas in the 60s with 70s in some
clearing in the west.

Clearing overspreads the bulk of the area tonight but clouds
increase overnight as an upper wave digs southeast into the upper
and middle Mississippi Valley. Weak high falls locally combining
with increasing mid level lapse rates produces minor instability
and chances for weak convection supported by warmer highs.

A dry period continues to be expected for Tuesday night into early
Thursday as the upper trough settles into the southern Mississippi
Valley. The track and speed of this and a potential tropical system
are quite uncertain for the late week and weekend, but there has
been some suggestion of remnants of the latter rotating around the
former and impacting the region. NBM PoPs have trended toward this
solution though confidence in this occurring is limited. Temperatures
for these periods should remain fairly close to late September
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

MVFR stratus lingers around the TOP and FOE terminals and will
likely stay nearby through at least 18Z. Latest trends suggest
TOP could see cigs drop into MVFR levels for a while, mainly
around 15Z while MVFR cigs remain at FOE. Confidence in where
the MVFR line will be is not high. VFR conditions are likely by
22Z, however, and should be the rule throughout this forecast at
MHK as the upper system slowly moves east with light mainly
north- northeast winds at all sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage