159
FXUS63 KTOP 220746
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers early today, diminishing tonight into
  Monday.

- Much cooler today and Monday, near normal temperatures for the mid
  to late week and mainly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Upper low over western Colorado spilling showers and some
thunderstorms across mainly southern and eastern portions of Kansas
overnight. Model trends over the past few runs have been for a
faster and more positive tilt to the wave as it weakens and pushes
east. This keeps precipitation chances more limited with more
potential breaks in the cloud as early as today in central Kansas
and much of the area by Monday afternoon. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue in mainly southern areas early today but
a few could linger across east-central Kansas tonight into early
Monday until the trough axis exits. Some locations could get another
inch of rain but rates should be modest enough to keep flooding in
check. The effective cold front should be well south of the area by
midday and shift any severe concern out. Have bumped up high
temperatures closer the the upper third of guidance today and Monday
given the drier trend, but these values are still 20 to 30 degrees
colder than Saturday.

The next upper trough digs southeast into the northern Plains and
western Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday, though differences
in how the southern end of this trough behaves become apparent by
Tuesday afternoon. There is increasing agreement in a cutoff low
developing nearby which could bring a small chance for light rain
around Tuesday. Differences in the upper pattern increase into the
late week, at least partially impacted by a potential tropical wave
moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico. Dry conditions are more
likely than not with temperatures moderating back to late September
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Complicated forecast with cold front passing and upper wave to
the west. Periods of showers expected over the next several
hours with only small potential for TS. After the cold front
passes, lower levels will saturate with MVFR cigs expected. IFR
conditions still more likely than not for several hours at TOP
and FOE with precipitation chances lowering with time. Lower
levels should dry enough for VFR conditions to return to all
sites by the end of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage