862
FXUS64 KTSA 301910
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
210 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Scattered storms ongoing across NW AR into SE OK will continue
into mid evening with a gradual decrease in coverage after sunset.
A brief strong storm is possible with damaging downburst winds the
primary concern. Wind fields are not as favorable for organized
storms as this time yesterday so any severe threat should remain
very isolated. Additionally, areas away from thunderstorm
influences will continue with dangerous heat index values through
sunset. The frontal boundary that generally lies along Interstate
40 will continue to gradually lose definition while lifting
northward and becoming oriented more north south with time. Isolated
storms may continue in vicinity of this feature into the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Hot and humid conditions overspread the entire forecast area
tomorrow and generally through late week. The aforementioned
decaying frontal zone may act to focus a corridor of higher
dewpoints through the day Monday and possibly allow for isolated
to scattered storms. Otherwise, the primary weather impact will be
dangerous heat index and wet bulb globe temps. A heat advisory has
been issued and portions of the area may need to be upgraded into
warning criteria pending forecast dewpoint trends.

Upper ridge strengthens over the region Tuesday into Wednesday and
chances for daily thunderstorms will trend down. Temperatures will
be trending upward and likely combine with persistent high
dewpoints to yield a continuation of dangerous heat levels.
Expect heat headlines to extend for several days.

Upper ridging begins to weaken by late week and an initial cold
front may approach NE OK by late Wednesday though likely stalls
just north of the region. This corridor may be near enough to
allow a low chance of storms into NE OK. Otherwise the pattern
will begin to feature a building ridge aloft through the western
CONUS and downstream troughing aids a stronger cold frontal push
into the southern Plains Friday into the weekend. Most of the
guidance remains persistent with the cold front making it through
the entire forecast area bringing a chance of showers and storms
along with cooler temps by next weekend. However, there does
remain a subset of solutions with a lesser aggressive frontal push
and summertime cold fronts can often leave you disappointed, so
uncertainty remains in the latter part of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop near
a cold front sagging south across northwest AR into southeast OK
through the afternoon. Outside of direct thunderstorm impacts,
VFR conditions will prevail, with brief MVFR conditions possible
within thunderstorms. Storms should dissipate this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  97  80  99 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   77  94  74  98 /  20  20  10   0
MLC   75  96  77  97 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   72  96  77  99 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   71  92  70  95 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   69  90  69  96 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   75  94  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   71  93  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
F10   74  96  77  96 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   75  94  75  95 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053-072>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>067-070>076.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ065-066-070-071.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14