Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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064 FXUS64 KTSA 260200 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 900 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A few isolated thunderstorms continue this evening, however stronger and more widespread convection has mainly pushed west of area. Still some uncertainty regarding storm evolution tonight into Wednesday morning. Atmosphere remains very unstable and there are some indications in the CAMS that storms may fester overnight across portions of northeast Oklahoma ahead of anticipated MCS, which should move into the area from the north late tonight into Wednesday morning. Update will be sent to modestly increase PoPs across NE OK tonight with better precip coverage east of Highway 75 Wednesday morning ahead of main convective line. Update out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to be ongoing across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday morning with additional shower/storm development possible near any remnant outflow boundaries. Will keep the heat advisory for Wednesday as is for now. However, an upgrade to a excessive heat warning may be needed across portions of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. Heat will continue to be the main concern through the remainder of the forecast with temperatures around the century mark across portions of the area most afternoons with heat headlines likely. However, there will be a low chances of showers/storms Saturday into Sunday as a weak frontal boundary tries to move into the region. This may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Few to scattered mid and high clouds should continue across the CWA this evening...and increase late tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of a potential MCS diving south southeast out of Kansas/Missouri. Thunderstorm chances increase over mainly far eastern Oklahoma and also northwest Arkansas after 08z...and will continue with Prob30/Tempo groups for timing through Wednesday morning for northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Within the convection will be gusty to locally strong winds and a brief period of heavy rainfall. Behind the precip...broken high clouds should scatter out with scattered mid clouds forecast for the afternoon hours. Across eastern Oklahoma TAF sites Wednesday...broken mid/high clouds in the morning should become mainly scattered high clouds in northeast Oklahoma and scattered mid clouds in southeast Oklahoma. Winds through the period start out southerly...become variable with the precip...and then switch to a more westerly to northwesterly Wednesday afternoon. Outside of any precipitation...VFR conditions are forecast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 78 99 74 / 20 30 20 10 FSM 99 78 96 76 / 20 30 50 10 MLC 97 78 98 74 / 20 20 20 10 BVO 99 73 97 69 / 20 30 20 20 FYV 96 72 92 69 / 20 40 60 10 BYV 96 72 91 68 / 20 50 60 10 MKO 96 77 96 73 / 20 30 30 10 MIO 96 72 93 69 / 20 40 40 10 F10 96 76 99 73 / 20 30 20 10 HHW 95 77 96 74 / 20 10 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057- 059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...20