571
FXUS64 KTSA 142255
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
555 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A Heat Advisory is ongoing for portions of NE OK this afternoon
as heat indices climb to near 105 degrees and WBGT values
approach 90 degrees (Extreme Risk). Temps will fall enough to
allow the Heat Advisory across parts of NE OK to expire at 6 PM
this evening. There remains a very low potential for a few stray
showers or storms this evening as a weak boundary drifts into NE
OK/ NW AR. Will maintain slight chance PoPs as any precip should
remain spotty at best.

A shortwave is forecast to move through the plains late tonight
and Saturday... though the more significant height falls will
remain north of the CWA. CAMs suggest an area of showers and
storms will develop across E CO/ W KS this evening and track east-
northeast overnight. Again, there is a very low chance a shower
or two scrapes far NE OK as this occurs (late overnight/ early Sat
morning)... but will hold PoPs below 15%. Otherwise, a quiet
night is in store with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and
light to calm winds. Low temperatures should land within a few
degrees of 70 areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There remains a low chance for isolated shower/ storm development
primarily across NW AR during the afternoon/ early evening
tomorrow as the aforementioned wave progresses ENE. Otherwise
Saturday and Sunday are currently expected to remain predominantly
dry. There are some hints at additional isolated precip
development Sunday afternoon... primarily across far E OK/ NW
AR... but opted to keep PoPs less than 10% for now. Additionally,
pressure gradients tighten this weekend in response to
strengthening lee lows in the N/C Plains. This will provide
breezier conditions (15-25 mph) which should help keep WBGT values
down a touch. Still, summer heat will continue across the region
with high temps remaining in the mid 90s and heat indices flirting
with advisory criteria this weekend.

For late weekend into next week, ridging increases across E CONUS
as longwave troughing expands over the intermountain west. Under
this pattern, low level southerly flow is forecast to persist for
much of the extended period. Resulting winds will continue to be
fairly breezy to windy through the first part of the week... with
gusts up to 25-35 mph. By mid to late week, the ridge begins to
expand westward into the S Plains. This may allow for additional
moisture from the gulf to arrive and increase PWATs, especially
across eastern portions of the CWA. At least low chances for rain/
thunder are forecast each afternoon next week, initially highest
across W Arkansas, then expanding west to include E OK by later in
the week as moisture increases. That being said, widespread
wetting rainfall is not expected at this time.

While high temps may drop a few degrees next week due to
increasing moisture/ clouds, still expecting most locations to
approach or exceed 90 degrees. Low temperatures will remain near
70 degrees through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Few to sct cu will
dissipate after sunset, and will pop back up over mainly the NW AR
TAF sites on Saturday afternoon. An increase in high cloud is
expected late tonight into Saturday as well.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  94  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   71  94  71  94 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   70  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   72  93  72  93 /  20  10   0   0
F10   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   68  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-057>062-064-
     067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30