548
FXUS64 KTSA 160511
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Both surface and mid-level ridging across the Southeast CONUS
continues to drive in modest warm air advection into the region
this evening. A mid-level shortwave trough over the
Central/Northern Plains, currently causing showers/storms in far
Northwest OK and Central KS will continue to lift northeastward
tonight and will likely have little to no impact on the forecast
area. Thus, a quiet, warm and sultry night under partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies is expected. Overnight low temperatures will
bottom out the low-mid 70s -- generally about 5-7 degrees warmer
than seasonal average.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal Sunday and
again Monday. As upper high shifts over the Eastern Seaboard, a weak
mid level impulse will lift north with low level Gulf moisture slowly
increasing through mid week. This may allow isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon with peak heating.

Warming trend returns Friday into Saturday as upper ridging builds
back into the southern Plains. Rain chances should remain very low
to nil as easterly low level flow advects a drier air-mass into
the region with PWATs decreasing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with late
morning into afternoon CU development expected. Gusty southerly
winds will develop late morning at all terminals except FSM,
continuing through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  20
MLC   73  91  73  89 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   70  93  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  90  71  87 /   0  20  10  20
BYV   72  91  71  85 /   0  20  10  20
MKO   73  91  73  89 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   72  91  73  88 /   0  10   0   0
F10   72  90  73  88 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   72  89  71  87 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...22