906
FXUS64 KTSA 201105
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
605 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Today will be another hot and mostly sunny day for many areas.
850- 500 hPa temps will remain near the 99th percentile for this
time of year with southerly wind continuing to advect warm and
humid air into the area. Meanwhile, modest rains in some areas
yesterday will result in locally elevated dew points. Overall, this
should result in temperatures and dew points that are similar to
what was observed yesterday, with afternoon heat indices reaching
or exceeding 105 F in several areas. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for much of eastern OK and west-central AR.

The other weather story today will be a slight chance of storms once
again this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-40. A weak
remnant west-east surface boundary will remain near the OK-KS and OK-
MO borders. With sufficient instability, marginal wind shear, and
a transient upper level feature, a few storms may form. Overall
the coverage is expected to be minimal with a minimal severe
weather threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Over the next several days the strong ridge of high pressure that
has been centered over and south of the area will begin to weaken
and shift south in response to an approaching upper level trough
from the west. In spite of upper level cooling, the lower levels
will remain quite hot, with high temperatures once again in the mid
90s to near 100 F. As the previously mentioned trough approaches, a
few late afternoon or evening storms may develop Saturday, with
the best chance in northwest AR.

Some cooling will likely begin Sunday with more extensive cloud
cover. Additionally, an upper level jet streak will increase mid
level flow, wind shear, and upper level divergence. These
factors, along with sufficient instability, will likely result in
a round of showers and thunderstorms along a frontal boundary.
There is a marginal risk (5% chance) that a few of the storms
could be severe. This will be the best and most widespread chance
of precipitation for most areas during the forecast period, with
Pops of 40-60% most areas. A few areas of locally heavy rainfall
could result in minor flash flooding, but recent dry conditions
will mostly limit that threat.

Model guidance remains in good agreement for Monday, with much
cooler temperatures moving into the area. Most areas will remain in
the 70s with relatively dry conditions developing from northwest
to southeast during the day. The forecast becomes much more
uncertain for the middle to end of next week. Ensemble guidance
does agree that behind the previously mentioned trough, a
secondary upper level trough will dive south. However, model
guidance is very inconsistent with this feature. Some guidance
merges the two upper lows and they stay over the area with very
cool and showery conditions, while other guidance moves the new
upper low to the east leaving us cool but mostly dry. Still other
guidance takes the initial low east while the follow on low goes
west and a ridge builds over the area. Suffice it to say, the
spread of possible outcomes is very high for next week. Guidance
is roughly evenly split between these generalized outcomes, so no
particular solution is favored at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  98  75 /  10  20  20  20
FSM   98  76  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   99  74  98  73 /  10   0   0  10
BVO  100  73  99  70 /  20  20  20  30
FYV   95  73  92  70 /  20  20  30  20
BYV   95  73  92  71 /  20  20  40  20
MKO   97  76  96  74 /  10  10  20  10
MIO   97  74  96  71 /  20  20  20  30
F10   99  74  98  73 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   98  73  96  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05