Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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607 FXUS64 KTSA 190708 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Near normal temperatures, partly to mostly cloudy skies and widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected in eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today. Very light showers remain early this morning across Osage and Pawnee counties on the edge of a modest low level jet and may persist into mid morning before dissipating. An increase in cloud cover can be expected this afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which should keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than observed yesterday. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Surface high pressure will nose into the area overnight, leading to lighter and more easterly winds than the last few nights, which should promote cooler low temperatures for Thursday morning than we have seen of late. During the day Thursday, cloud cover should diminish overall, as the moisture from the tropical system to our south is pushed west of the area by the expanding upper level high to the east. There could be more isolated shower and thunderstorm development on Thursday afternoon, especially in southeast Oklahoma on the edge of the expanding high, and this potential will be added to the NBM offering. For Friday and into the weekend, the temperature and moisture combination takes focus with the high overhead. Temperatures should reach well above normal levels for the weekend and continue into early next week. An increase in moisture remains expected by Sunday, which will make the heat stress potential worse. Expect widespread triple digit heat index values, with a likely need for heat headlines during much of this time frame. Toward early next week, the high remains expected to shift far enough west to allow for some more organized shower and thunderstorm potential. Have adjusted the NBM initialization up a bit to allow for mentionable POPs Sunday night/Monday morning and also Monday night/Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the night with just a few clouds in the 4-6 kft layer and some higher clouds at or above 15 kft. One exception to this will be for the terminals near Tulsa as well as KBVO, where clouds will be a bit thicker with some isolated light rain showers possible through 9Z or so. Coverage will be sparse with no impacts expected. During the day Wednesday, winds will again become breezy out of the south, but speeds will be lower at 10-20 kts most areas. FEW- SCT clouds are expected in the 4-6 kft layer through the day with additional mid and high clouds. A few afternoon showers and storms will pop up, especially near KMLC up to KFSM, but for now did not include mention in the TAFs as they will be very isolated. Should a storm occur, it would result in brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 10 0 FSM 91 73 93 73 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 90 71 91 71 / 20 10 10 0 BVO 91 69 91 69 / 20 10 10 0 FYV 90 68 90 68 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 90 68 90 68 / 20 10 0 0 MKO 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 90 71 90 71 / 10 10 0 0 F10 89 71 89 71 / 10 10 10 0 HHW 86 73 90 71 / 20 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06