679
FXUS64 KTSA 211540
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Deep layer ridging continues to spread in from the east today. In
turn, deep layer moisture will become less notable over the area
this afternoon with PWAT values nearly half of what we have seen
for most of the week. This will push any isolated shower chances
west of the region within the deeper moisture axis. More sunshine
today will allow temperatures to rise a few degrees higher than
yesterday as a notable warmup begins heading into the weekend.
Current forecast remains in good shape at this time.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper ridge to become more centered over the southern plains
through the weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures expected
Upper flow to improve some for the latter half of the weekend,
which may result in a some shower and storms near the KS/OK and
NW AR/SW MO Sunday morning. With low coverage expected, will
leave mentionable PoPs out at this time. Upper ridge early next
week will build across the SW CONUS, resulting in a NW flow
pattern across the E OK and NW AR. `Best` chances for showers and
storms come Tuesday night and Wednesday as a S-SE moving upper
wave brings a frontal boundary into the area. Will include low
PoPs in at the end of the forecast cycle as another upper wave
moves across the central plains late Thursday night and Friday.
Temperatures will be on the increase in the Sunday through Tuesday
timeframe- but areas that see a frontal passage around mid week
will likely see slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the forecast
period. Cigs may briefly fall to MVFR this morning, but did not
include in TAFs due to expectation for limited areal and temporal
coverage. Additionally, cannot rule out an isolated shower or two
this morning/ afternoon, but any impacts should remain minimal
and short-lived. Southerly sfc winds increase today, but
generally remain below 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  74  96  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   94  72  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   91  71  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   92  71  95  75 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   91  69  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   91  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   91  71  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   91  71  93  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   90  70  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   89  71  92  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...43