Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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442 FXUS64 KTSA 200639 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Overall, conditions expected today should be similar to those of the last few days, with afternoon temperatures running near normal, lighter wind speeds like yesterday and potential for widely scattered shower and thunderstorm afternoon development. Areas along and south of I-40 and also northwest of I-44 remain favored for the showers and thunderstorms, and slight chance POPs have been added to the NBM initialization to cover this potential. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Upper level high pressure over the eastern United States will continue to shift westward late this week and into the weekend, which should lead to decreasing cloud cover, even less potential for showers and thunderstorms and a marked increase in the heat and heat stress potential. Expect afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in a few spots and triple digit heat index values by Saturday. With the center of the high shifting west of the area late in the weekend and early next week, shower and thunderstorm chances should go up accordingly. Much like yesterday, the NBM POPs and Sky cover have been adjusted upward, especially across northern parts of the area Sunday night/Monday morning and again, Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the high not directly overhead, an expectation of higher moisture from Sunday on and potential for cloud cover and convective impacts, afternoon highs have been adjusted downward from the NBM initialization closer to the NBM 50th percentile, which reflect values closer to traditional MOS guidance. Still, the combination of afternoon temperatures and expected higher dew points remains likely to lead to widespread heat index values above 105 and the need for heat headlines from Sunday on. Keep this in mind if you have outdoor recreation or work plans. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered clouds, mostly in the 3-6 kft layer are expected to develop tonight, persisting through the day Thursday. Scattered high clouds are also expected. Winds will be light and mostly out of the southeast. A few very isolated showers or storms could develop Thursday afternoon, but the probability of impacting a terminal is 20 percent or less. If a storm did develop near a terminal, the main impact would be from gusty outflow winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 74 94 74 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 93 72 96 73 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 88 70 93 70 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 91 71 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 90 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 89 72 92 71 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 89 72 92 71 / 0 10 0 0 F10 88 71 92 70 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 89 70 92 70 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06