667
FXUS64 KTSA 151707
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current forecast looks in good shape going into the afternoon
850 mb temps a little cooler than those observed 24 hours
ago, which may result in afternoon max temps a degree or so less
than yesterday. Dewpoint trends overall suggest they will mix
out heading into the afternoon, and available guidance supports
this. That said, max HI values should remain below advisory criteria
today so do not plan on issuing one at this time. Remaining first
period elements are in line as well, so no update is planned at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The upper level high will shift eastwards Sunday through Tuesday,
settling into the northeast US. Meanwhile a broad and deep trough
will settle into the western US, with an inverted trough moving
westward over southern Texas. Upper level heights and
temperatures will lower as a result of this pattern
reconfiguration across the CWA, implying a slight cooling trend
into early next week. Additionally, cyclogenesis in the northern
Plains will induce gusty southerly winds across the area for
several days. Max wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. These
winds will keep dew points elevated due to enhanced moisture
advection. With slightly lower temperatures, but still elevated
moisture levels, heat indices will continue to approach 95-100F
each day. Rain chances will mostly remain minimal through Tuesday,
though a few high terrain showers or storms could occur in
southeast OK or northwest AR.

By next Wednesday, and continuing into the weekend, upper level
heights will rebuild over the area with any fronts remaining well to
the north. This should imply an increasing temperature trend, with
highs back into the mid 90s for many areas. However, with continued
moisture advection from the south, a few diurnal showers or storms
could still occur, especially Wednesday. But overall the hot and
mostly dry weather pattern we`ve seen of late looks to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the
valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  94  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  95  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   73  92  73  91 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  92  72  90 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   70  92  72  91 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   72  92  73  91 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   72  92  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
F10   71  92  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   72  91  72  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23