038
FXUS64 KTSA 160139
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Both surface and mid-level ridging across the Southeast CONUS
continues to drive in modest warm air advection into the region
this evening. A mid-level shortwave trough over the
Central/Northern Plains, currently causing showers/storms in far
Northwest OK and Central KS will continue to lift northeastward
tonight and will likely have little to no impact on the forecast
area. Thus, a quiet, warm and sultry night under partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies is expected. Overnight low temperatures will
bottom out the low-mid 70s -- generally about 5-7 degrees warmer
than seasonal average.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal Sunday and
again Monday. As upper high shifts over the Eastern Seaboard, a weak
mid level impulse will lift north with low level Gulf moisture slowly
increasing through mid week. This may allow isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon with peak heating.

Warming trend returns Friday into Saturday as upper ridging builds
back into the southern Plains. Rain chances should remain very low
to nil as easterly low level flow advects a drier air-mass into
the region with PWATs decreasing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South
winds will gust over 20 knots at times Sunday at the northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  94  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  95  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   73  92  73  91 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   70  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  92  72  90 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   70  92  72  91 /  20   0   0  20
MKO   72  92  73  91 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   72  92  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
F10   71  92  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   72  91  72  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05