336
FXUS64 KTSA 281718
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Some light showers persist across southern Kansas, but are
expected to remain north of the border through the remainder of
the morning. Only forecast update was to remove any mention of
precip.

Aside from that, clouds will continue to decrease with dangerously
hot and humid conditions developing across a large portion of
eastern OK, as a corridor of mid-upper 70s dew points expands
north into the afternoon. This should yield HI values of 110-115
generally along and west of U.S. Highway 69. COnditions should
remain slightly less oppressive to the east, but increasingly
humid nonetheless. The only saving grace will be south winds in
the 10-20 mph range, and a few gusts up to 30 mph, which should
help keep WBGTs below the critical category. Heat headlines will
be kept as they are, though updates may be needed later as temps
and dew point trends become a little more clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will persist through the
overnight hours tonight. A weak and slow-moving cold front will
begin to approach from the north/northwest late tonight and into
Saturday morning. Included some low-end, isolated PoPs early
Saturday morning, mostly along and north of the I-44 corridor,
along and head of the approaching front. Most locations will
likely remain dry. The frontal boundary is forecast to gradually
sag southward through the day on Saturday. Models continue to
produce better chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
increasing in coverage by mid-late Saturday afternoon through the
evening hours. Instability will also increase along and ahead of
the frontal boundary, with MUCAPE values maximizing between
1500-3000 J/kg late Saturday afternoon or early Saturday evening.
Although deep-layer 0-6km shear will be rather weak, a few strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of
the cold front, generally along and north of I-40, with the main
hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. The SPC has
included much of eastern OK and all of northwest AR in a Marginal
Risk of severe storms on Saturday/Saturday evening.

Despite the slow-advancing (weak) cold front on Saturday, another
sweltering hot day is anticipated, with extreme heat indices
(105-115F) during the afternoon, especially for portions of
northeast OK and the AR River Valley. Heat headlines will likely
be needed again for much, if not all, of the forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist into Sunday as the
aforementioned cold front continues to slowly advance southward
through the remainder of the forecast area. Increased cloud cover
and rain chances on Sunday should produce much cooler and closer
to seasonal average temperatures. Therefore, not expecting any
heat headlines on Sunday.

Dangerous heat and humidity will likely return during the early-
middle part of next week as mid/upper-level ridging strengthens
over the Southern Plains. However, trends in model data suggest
rain/storm chances return mid-late week as ridging continues to
shift southward and allows another weak cold front to approach
Wednesday night-Thursday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
south winds gusting 20-25 knots through the afternoon. A few light
showers are possible across parts of northeast OK late tonight,
but with limited impact on flight conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  82  99  75 /   0  10  30  50
FSM   98  79 100  79 /   0   0  10  30
MLC   96  78  98  76 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   99  78  97  70 /  10  20  30  50
FYV   95  75  97  72 /   0  10  30  50
BYV   95  75  96  71 /  10  10  40  50
MKO   95  79  97  76 /   0  10  20  50
MIO   94  78  95  71 /  10  30  40  50
F10   96  78  97  74 /   0  10  20  50
HHW   94  78  95  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-072-
     074>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14