Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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045 FXUS64 KTSA 151527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1027 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Current forecast looks in good shape going into the afternoon 850 mb temps a little cooler than those observed 24 hours ago, which may result in afternoon max temps a degree or so less than yesterday. Dewpoint trends overall suggest they will mix out heading into the afternoon, and available guidance supports this. That said, max HI values should remain below advisory criteria today so do not plan on issuing one at this time. Remaining first period elements are in line as well, so no update is planned at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The upper level high will shift eastwards Sunday through Tuesday, settling into the northeast US. Meanwhile a broad and deep trough will settle into the western US, with an inverted trough moving westward over southern Texas. Upper level heights and temperatures will lower as a result of this pattern reconfiguration across the CWA, implying a slight cooling trend into early next week. Additionally, cyclogenesis in the northern Plains will induce gusty southerly winds across the area for several days. Max wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected. These winds will keep dew points elevated due to enhanced moisture advection. With slightly lower temperatures, but still elevated moisture levels, heat indices will continue to approach 95-100F each day. Rain chances will mostly remain minimal through Tuesday, though a few high terrain showers or storms could occur in southeast OK or northwest AR. By next Wednesday, and continuing into the weekend, upper level heights will rebuild over the area with any fronts remaining well to the north. This should imply an increasing temperature trend, with highs back into the mid 90s for many areas. However, with continued moisture advection from the south, a few diurnal showers or storms could still occur, especially Wednesday. But overall the hot and mostly dry weather pattern we`ve seen of late looks to continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Expect VFR conditions to prevail at the terminals, with any localized visibility reductions due to light fog likely to be short-lived past sunrise. A very low chance of thunderstorm impacts this afternoon and into early evening will exist at the far NW AR sites, with potential not high enough to mention in the TAFs for now. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon should remain isolated to the NE OK terminals, with speeds elsewhere remaining below 10kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 94 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 75 97 74 94 / 10 0 0 20 MLC 73 94 73 92 / 10 0 0 10 BVO 72 94 70 94 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 71 93 69 89 / 10 10 0 20 BYV 71 93 71 89 / 10 10 0 20 MKO 73 93 72 92 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 73 93 73 92 / 10 0 0 10 F10 72 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 72 94 73 89 / 0 0 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22