718
FXUS64 KTSA 240239
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Vast majority of precip has now dissipated or moved east of the area
with just some very light rain/ drizzle being reported across parts
of far NE OK/ NW AR. Have reduced PoPs accordingly with a dry
forecast overnight. Given recent rainfall, small T/Td spreads,
clearing skies, and light winds... at least patchy fog is expected
to develop across the CWA late this evening and overnight. A
corridor of more concentrated dense fog potential is expected across
far NE OK & NW AR, as well as S-central OK (primarily in areas which
received the most rain recently). As a result, have expanded fog
coverage across the entire CWA tonight with mention of dense fog in
the aforementioned higher potential areas. A Dense Fog Advisory will
probably be required at some point tonight for these areas, and will
be monitoring trends late this evening/ early overnight to determine
locations most likely to be impacted.

Aside from edits to PoPs & fog potential mentioned above, the
current forecast is tracking well with no significant changes
necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Remainder of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers continue to linger across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave moves across the
region. This activity is expected to exit the area to the east
this evening. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out during
this time.

A cooler night is on tap for the area tonight with patchy fog
possible across much of the area. The greatest concentration of
fog is expected across northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Patchy fog is forecast to persist into mid-morning Tuesday before
dissipating. Most of Tuesday is forecast to be dry with the
chances of showers/storms returning Tuesday night as the next
upperlevel shortwave dives into the Mid-Mississippi Valley while
intensifying

Shower/storm chances continue mid-week as the upper level low spins
over the Mississippi Valley. The forecast for late week into the
weekend is more complicated and is highly dependent on the interaction
of PTC 9 and the aforementioned upper level low.  As of right now,
the highest potential for showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas will come on Friday as tropical moisture
interacts with the Mississippi Valley upper level low. Locally heavy
rains will be a concern. This will be especially true across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  The chances of showers/storms decrease
Saturday into Sunday as the storm system begins to exit to the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Low clouds persist across much of E OK/NW AR late this afternoon with
clearing line currently west of Highway 75. Skies are expected to clear
from northwest to southeast overnight with the potential for dense
fog. Some areas could see more widespread dense fog especially across
northwest Arkansas/southeast Oklahoma. LIFR conditions are likely
in these areas given the recent rainfall, current reduced temp/dew-
point spreads, coupled with lows tonight forecast several degrees
below crossover temperatures/dew-points. MOS guidance is currently
not as aggressive with denser fog development across NE OK and for now
will stay with TEMPO MVFR visibilities. The fog is expected to lift
by mid morning with VFR conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  57  80 /   0  10  20  10
FSM   63  84  61  83 /  10   0  40  10
MLC   58  84  58  83 /   0  10  50  10
BVO   53  80  52  82 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   58  78  54  79 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   59  76  55  78 /  20  10  10  20
MKO   56  79  57  80 /   0  10  30  10
MIO   56  76  53  78 /   0  10  10  10
F10   54  81  56  80 /   0  10  30  10
HHW   61  86  61  83 /   0   0  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12