Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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184 FXUS64 KTSA 230531 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Weak front remains north of the OK/KS border and while a few storms continue along the boundary in south central KS, chances of any additional development into NE OK tonight remain less than 15%. Overall forecast looks good and no updates will be sent. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A sw-ne oriented low level thermal ridge is extending east into the lower Plains ahead of the weak front today and will drop south over the forecast area on Sunday. This will allow afternoon high temps to climb to near the century mark for the first time in 2024 in several areas along/near the Arkansas River valley with at least upper 90s for nearby areas of east-central and northeast OK. The weak front from this evening will sink south and stall over the area on Sunday, but will not provide any cooling and may just make things worse as moisture pools along the boundary. The heat and humidity will push afternoon heat indices to advisory levels and have thus issued a heat advisory for Sunday afternoon. Data suggests some potential for isolated showers and storms over western AR and neighboring far eastern OK, so some low mentionable PoPs were added. I wouldn`t hold my breath though. Low level thermal fields remain toasty on Monday and Tuesday, so expect more heat headlines. The trend in the data for the front and associated shower/storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday has been toward less aggressive in both PoPs and temps. There may not be much relief from the heat from this system. The mid-level ridge shifts west only briefly, and quickly rebuilds back overhead. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast period. A weak boundary will tend to stall across NE OK/ NW AR today with a period of LLWS predominantly between 09-12z in these areas. Otherwise SCT mid/ high clouds expected through much of the period with very low chances for some showers in the morning/ afternoon near the boundary. Sfc winds should mostly remain below 10 kts with light & variable conditions near the boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 79 100 80 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 99 78 100 78 / 10 0 10 0 MLC 97 76 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 98 72 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 96 72 97 73 / 10 0 10 0 BYV 94 73 97 74 / 10 0 10 0 MKO 97 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 10 0 F10 97 76 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 96 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062-064-066-067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...43