748
FXUS64 KTSA 252352
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Isolated showers/storms are expected late this afternoon
and into the evening hours across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas with a little better coverage possible
across northern portions of the area as a weak mid-level
shortwave traverses the area. Any of the storms that develop
late this afternoon and evening will have potential to become
briefly strong/severe with damaging winds the concern.  Greater
coverage of showers/storms will be possible late tonight across
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a thunderstorm
complex is forecast to spread into the region from the
north/northeast. Strong to severe winds will also be possible
with this storm complex.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to be ongoing across
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday morning with
additional shower/storm development possible near any remnant
outflow boundaries. Will keep the heat advisory for Wednesday
as is for now. However, an upgrade to a excessive heat warning
may be needed across portions of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday
afternoon.

Heat will continue to be the main concern through the remainder of the
forecast with temperatures around the century mark across portions of
the area most afternoons with heat headlines likely. However, there will
be a low chances of showers/storms Saturday into Sunday as a weak frontal
boundary tries to move into the region. This may keep temperatures a
few degrees cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Few to scattered mid and high clouds should continue across the
CWA this evening...and increase late tonight into Wednesday
morning ahead of a potential MCS diving south southeast out of
Kansas/Missouri. Thunderstorm chances increase over mainly far
eastern Oklahoma and also northwest Arkansas after 08z...and will
continue with Prob30/Tempo groups for timing through Wednesday
morning for northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Within the convection
will be gusty to locally strong winds and a brief period of heavy
rainfall. Behind the precip...broken high clouds should scatter
out with scattered mid clouds forecast for the afternoon hours.
Across eastern Oklahoma TAF sites Wednesday...broken mid/high
clouds in the morning should become mainly scattered high clouds
in northeast Oklahoma and scattered mid clouds in southeast
Oklahoma. Winds through the period start out southerly...become
variable with the precip...and then switch to a more westerly to
northwesterly Wednesday afternoon. Outside of any
precipitation...VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  99  74  94 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   78  96  76  95 /  30  40  10  10
MLC   78  98  74  95 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   73  97  69  93 /  20  10  20  10
FYV   72  92  69  93 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   72  91  68  90 /  50  70  10  10
MKO   77  96  73  93 /  30  30  10  10
MIO   72  93  69  90 /  40  30  10  20
F10   76  99  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   77  96  74  94 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20