Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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032 FXUS64 KTSA 231515 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A few light rain showers/sprinkles formed along a weak upper- level boundary along/south of the I-40 corridor this morning. The shower activity may drop a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain, at most, and should end before noon. Otherwise, only minor adjustments have been made to the current short-term forecast. The oppressive heat continues to be the main headline for today. As of 10 AM, heat indices had already risen into the lower-middle 90s for many locations across the forecast area. Today`s Heat Advisory configuration and timing remains valid, but will continue to monitor T/Td trends, adding additional counties to the advisory if thresholds are met. Mejia && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Mostly westward expansion of the upper ridge will continue today, and will result in slightly warmer temps and a small increase in relative humidity. Many areas across E OK and WC AR will see max HI values of 105 or greater today. Only change to the current NPW will be to add Okfuskee county. Otherwise the current Heat Advisory configuration and duration look good. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Little change in the upper pattern is expected Monday, with afternoon temps and heat indices likely to rival those that will be seen today. Will let the next shift assess headline requirements for Monday. The upper flow turns more northwesterly Tuesday as the ridge centers over the SW CONUS, but once more hot temperatures can be expected. Upper wave along with an approaching surface boundary will increase chances for showers and storms, mainly Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Depending on boundary proximity and coverage of rain Wednesday, some locations may see slightly cooler high temperatures Wednesday afternoon. This will be short lived as the upper ridge builds back over the plains later this week. Next weekend, slightly better mid level flow just to the north may allow for some shower and storms to brush parts of NE OK Saturday/Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast period. Scattered showers have developed this morning in parts of E-Central OK and W-Central AR. Expect this activity to gradually shift south this morning before dissipating. Additional isolated showers may develop later this afternoon (highest potential near FSM). Otherwise, a mix of mid and high clouds will prevail areawide with light sfc winds (<10 kts). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 98 78 100 78 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 97 76 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 97 73 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 95 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 95 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 95 73 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 F10 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 95 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ UPDATE...67 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...43