Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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382 FXUS64 KTSA 190025 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 725 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Storms that developed off the dryline this afternoon should dissipate west of the forecast area this evening. By late tonight into Thursday morning, guidance continues to indicate at least low potential for some sunrise surprise high-based showers and storms close to the KS border to the north and west of Tulsa. Will maintain low PoPs in this area. No noticeable changes were made to the going forecast. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Mid level moist axis and influence of passing weak wave will likely support isolated late night into early morning convection which may spread into portions of NE OK. Overall coverage and duration will keep precip chances low with any precip ending by mid / late morning. Otherwise, warm overnight low temps expected and generally 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Hot and humid conditions will develop Thursday afternoon with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s across much of the region. A sustained southerly wind will help however wet bulb globe temps support a notable increase in heat stress conditions area wide. By late afternoon a weak sfc trough will extend through north central OK and isolated to scattered storms could develop and spread eastward through Thursday evening. Considerable uncertainty remains in overall storm coverage, however an unstable and sufficiently sheared environment will support potential for strong multicells or transient supercells. Deeply mixed subcloud layers will favor stronger outflow winds and, once the boundary layer decouples, a steady downtrend in severe potential is likely. Heat impacts continue on Friday with good agreement on high temperatures trending upward and approaching record levels at some locations. Focusing boundaries for storms are expected to remain west and north of the local region through Friday evening. Low chance of storm outflows propagating into NW AR by early Saturday with a corresponding chance of storms, however this scenario remains a low potential. Hot temps continue Saturday while low storm chances remain across NE OK through NW AR in proximity to the stalled remnant frontal zone. As the stronger wave approaches from the west the focus becomes the associated cold front which makes slow but steady progress eastward. A window from late Saturday night through Sunday night appears most likely for the frontal passage across the forecast area. Guidance continues to vary considerably on the coverage of precip associated with the frontal passage, and for now, chances will be kept low. Temperatures will finally begin to cool down Sunday and more so Monday through Tuesday. Some guidance does show considerably cooler temps for early next week and will be a trend to follow. Otherwise the pattern may remain supportive of rain chances into the middle of next week pending the magnitude of the developing central CONUS trough. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period. Low chance of isolated showers/ a stray elevated thunderstorm around the BVO/TUL/RVS vicinity between 09-15z. However, coverage is expected to remain low enough to preclude mention at this time. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across NE OK sites after 21z, though will not include with this forecast update given low probability and expectation for limited coverage. Any storm which develops during this period may produce gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, a mix of mid and high level clouds will prevail through the period with southerly winds increasing during the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 96 75 99 / 0 10 30 0 FSM 69 93 72 97 / 0 10 20 0 MLC 71 96 73 98 / 0 10 20 0 BVO 68 98 69 100 / 10 30 30 0 FYV 66 91 70 95 / 0 10 20 0 BYV 65 91 70 95 / 0 10 20 10 MKO 69 93 73 96 / 0 10 20 0 MIO 68 93 72 97 / 0 10 20 0 F10 69 96 73 98 / 0 10 20 0 HHW 69 95 71 97 / 0 10 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...43