Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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208 FXUS64 KTSA 191915 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Persistent ongoing corridor of elevated convection across SE KS is expected to remain north and east of the local forecast area, while new storm development across far western AR marks the location of the sfc boundary that extends through north central OK. Convective temps will likely be met within the weak convergence zone with scattered storms developing over the next couple of hours and spreading into northeast OK this evening. Locally damaging outflow winds and brief instances of large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. The window for severe potential will become to close after sunset and the severe risk is likely over by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The weak remnant sfc boundary will be aligned more east/west and remain near the northern periphery of the local forecast area Friday into Saturday. This zone will maintain at least low storm chances daily however guidance remains consistent in keeping the overall coverage very low. Otherwise, the continued heat will be the primary weather impact through Saturday with near record high temps expected on Friday. Dewpoints have stubbornly overachieved today despite a lack of recent rains and if this trend remains in the forecast then heat advisories may be posted. Sunday evening through early Monday will mark the most likely time for the cold front passage and associated high chances of more widespread rains. Unfortunately, widespread meaningful rains do not appear likely as forecast amounts remain rather light for most locations, however any rainfall will be welcome. Noticeably cooler temps for early next week with a few days falling below seasonal normals. Rain chances return by mid week with temperatures moderating to nearer mid September normals. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected after 21z along a surface trough moving toward NE OK. Coverage remains in question however and these conditions continue to be represented with increase in clouds at NE OK sites. While VFR conditions will continue to prevail, direct impact from storms (20% chance or less) could result in brief gusty winds and potentially MVFR ceilings. Some south wind gusts around 20 knots will continue through this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 99 77 98 / 30 10 10 10 FSM 73 98 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 MLC 74 99 74 97 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 70 100 73 99 / 30 10 20 10 FYV 72 95 72 93 / 10 20 20 20 BYV 72 95 73 92 / 10 20 20 30 MKO 74 97 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 MIO 72 97 74 95 / 30 10 20 20 F10 74 99 74 97 / 20 10 0 10 HHW 71 98 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...14