448
FXUS64 KTSA 242350
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the
vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system.
This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently
over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential
that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across
portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and
west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main
concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move
out of the area late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff
upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and
storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated
with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the
area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across
western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level
low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend
with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to
be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread south
and east this evening across E OK and NW AR with additional
development possible over the next several hours. This may lead
to at least brief ceiling & vsby reductions, with highest
potential for flight impacts expected for MLC. Most precip should
move south of TAF sites by 07z with clearing conditions behind
this activity. This may allow for development of fog late tonight/
tomorrow morning (low to medium chance). At this time, MLC and
FSM appear to be most favored for vsby reductions and have
included TEMPO groups here. Other sites in E OK & NW AR may also
experience at least brief vsby reductions, but confidence was not
high enough to include mention with this forecast issuance. Aside
from any lingering fog tomorrow morning, VFR conditions are
expected for the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  54  80 /  70   0   0   0
FSM   61  82  59  82 /  70   0   0  10
MLC   59  81  56  81 /  90   0   0   0
BVO   52  81  51  82 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   54  79  51  78 /  50   0   0  20
BYV   54  78  51  77 /  30   0   0  20
MKO   57  79  55  79 /  70   0   0  10
MIO   54  79  50  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   57  80  53  79 /  80   0   0   0
HHW   62  81  56  82 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...43