Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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209 FXUS64 KTSA 171711 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Fetch of low level gulf moisture advecting north has resulted in more cloud cover than currently reflected in the forecast. Update this morning will mainly to increase sky cover- mainly across far E OK and NW AR. Sufficient heating through the afternoon should allow afternoon high temps to be realized, so will leave those as they are. Remaining first period elements outside of sky cover will also be left as they are. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Through roughly the middle part of this work week, the region should be squeezed between upper level troughing in the northern Rockies, upper level ridging in the east and a tropical low in the western Gulf of Mexico that should eventually move north to northwest across Mexico. The further north that the tropical system moves, the more impact it will have to parts of eastern Oklahoma toward mid week - including rain chances, increased cloud cover and lower temperatures. The more northern influence offered by the NAM appears to be a notable outlier at this point and will be largely discarded in favor of the drier and warmer remainder of the model suite and the NBM offering. Upper level high pressure will extend into the area once again toward the weekend, signaling a return to increasing heat and humidity. Through much of this period, opted to reduce forecast highs from the NBM initialization more toward MOS guidance and also to raise dew points some, leveraging the raw model consensus blend. Heat indices during this time frame will at least flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. A weakness in the upper level high late in the weekend and into early next week will lead to low shower and thunderstorm chances for mainly parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible across the NW AR sites early in the period, otherwise VFR TAF elements will prevail throughout the valid period at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 93 75 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 93 75 90 73 / 10 10 20 0 MLC 90 73 87 71 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 93 73 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 90 71 87 69 / 10 10 20 0 BYV 91 71 87 69 / 10 0 20 0 MKO 91 73 88 72 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 91 73 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 F10 90 73 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 89 72 87 71 / 10 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...23