Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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699 FXUS64 KTSA 160535 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 826 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Current short term forecast on track this evening with no significant changes anticipated. Light precipitation, wrapping around northern side of remnant low, will likely remain east of the region across north-central Arkansas overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Monday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 As of early this afternoon, an H5 low, the remnants of Francine, was centered over the Mississippi River on the border of AR and MS. Deep layer moisture wrapping around the northern side of the system will bring low rain/storm chances to portions of NW AR to the east of I-49 this afternoon. After fading with the loss of daytime heating, low rain/storm chances are expected to spread farther west into the forecast area on Monday as a lobe of vorticity and associated deep layer moisture continue to wrap around the remnant low of Francine. For the forecast, will spread low PoPs farther west than the NBM (blended consensus) per HREF and CONSRaw forecasts. Short-term guidance indicates that a band of early morning showers and storms will form once again Monday morning along a mid-level deformation zone, but most likely over central KS. Chances that any of this activity will affect NE OK are too low to mention in the forecast at this time. Daytime highs on Monday should be a tick lower given closer approach and influence from the upper low to the east. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A high-over-low split-flow or rex block is expected to persist over the eastern CONUS thru the forecast period. A strong upper trough is moving onshore the West Coast today, with ridging aloft downstream over the High Plains. With time, this initial strong shortwave trough will eject northeast toward the central/northern Plains as ridging aloft shifts east and overhead and holds firm. Models are not as optimistic today regarding chances for rain/storms Tuesday night into Wednesday and PoPs have been lowered. High temp forecast has trended upward Thursday and Friday, with some places reaching the mid 90s, or about 10 degrees above average for this time of year. By next weekend, ensemble cluster data suggests that the western CONUS trough will shift far enough east/northeast to place a boundary close enough to force showers and storms into our area, but lots of uncertainty remains. The brand new 12Z EC suggests that a southern stream wave will eject out of the Southwest, but it may be Sunday or even into Monday before substantial changes occur, which is also similar to what the 12Z GFS has. The NBM yielded slight chance to chance PoPs for next weekend, and see no reason to change at this point. The current forecast highs are cooler for Saturday, but that could get pushed back a day if the current deterministic model runs hold. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 MVFR ceilings at the northwest Arkansas sites will spread west into KMLC early this morning. Ceilings will likely lift to MVFR at KMLC by late morning, and at the northwest Arkansas sites by late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 84 68 89 67 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 87 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 89 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 81 61 86 62 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 80 61 86 61 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 84 65 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 86 62 89 65 / 20 0 0 0 F10 86 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 87 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05