620
FXUS64 KTSA 241720
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas of dense fog across eastern Oklahoma this morning have
dissipated, giving way to a pleasant early Fall day today for most
of the area. Highs this afternoon are forecast to range from the
mid to upper 70s across the north, where mid and upper level
cloudiness will increase through the afternoon hours, to the mid
80s across the south under mostly clear conditions. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase later this afternoon
and into the evening as a mid level disturbance drops southeast
across the region. Most precip still looks to hold off until
around sunset. A low potential exist for a few stronger storms
with some damaging wind gusts, mainly along and west of Highway
75 this evening with any thunderstorms that develop.

Current forecast looks to still be on track, with just some minor
adjustments to hourly grids to account for the latest trends.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous this
evening, with the greatest coverage of precipitation and best
chance of storms remaining across the western and southern parts
of the forecast area. Precipitation will be ending from north to
south during the overnight hours.

A closed upper low is forecast to become cut off just to our east
late this week into early next week. Moisture wrapping around this
low will bring rain chances back to the area late Thursday and
especially Friday, with the greatest chances in the eastern part
of the forecast area. Rain chances will then linger into the
weekend across at least far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through
much of the forecast period as the upper low sits and spins just
to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mid level cloud cover will increase this afternoon and evening as
a disturbance moves into the region. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will also become greater later this afternoon and evening,
especially from Interstate 44 southward. Best chance for thunder
impacts will be to KMLC and KFSM this evening, with lighter
scattered showers possible for other terminals. Ceilings will also
lower, but are expected to stay mostly VFR, though some MVFR cigs
could accompany thunderstorms this evening. Some fog could
also develop again tomorrow morning for SE OK and W AR terminals,
though have left out of mention for now given uncertainties in
rain and cloud cover evolution overnight.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  54  80 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   61  82  59  82 /  70   0   0  10
MLC   59  81  56  81 /  90   0   0   0
BVO   52  81  51  82 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   54  79  51  78 /  50   0   0  20
BYV   54  78  52  77 /  30   0   0  20
MKO   57  79  55  79 /  70   0   0  10
MIO   54  79  51  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   57  80  53  79 /  80   0   0   0
HHW   62  81  56  82 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04