141
FXUS64 KTSA 210651
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
151 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the immediate short term, a cluster of showers and storms is
moving west-to-east just north of the area, with an outflow
boundary moving into northeast OK. These storms are expected to
generally remain north of the area, but a few showers or an
isolated thunderstorm are certainly possible for the next couple
of hours. For the rest of the day, CAM guidance shows several
weak transient features moving along the northern periphery of the
forecast area. These features will have at least some potential
to increase cloud cover and rain chances for a few hours.
Accordingly, increased Pops to 10-20% in the northern areas for
much of today. Severe weather is not expected, but any storms
that do form may result in locally strong gusty winds.

Hot temperatures will also continue today with high temperatures
again climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Dew points will remain
elevated, but likely slightly lower than yesterday, so heat
indices are expected to be slightly lower than what was seen
yesterday. Still, this will mean afternoon heat indices of 100-105
F for most areas. Heat Advisory criteria may be locally met in a
few locations, but for now have elected not to issue any heat
products due to low confidence in which areas may do so.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

During the day Sunday the upper level high that has dominated the
weather of late will weaken and shift south as a positively tilted
trough moves into the region, with the upper level low center
moving into Kansas. Showers and storms will increase across the
area as upper level diffluence spreads over the warm and humid
atmosphere (850-500 hPa specific humidity near the 99th percentile
for this time of year). Then, the surface cold front will move
through during the afternoon and evening. Storm activity will
focus near and behind this boundary, resulting in wet conditions
for many Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Although this will
not be a classic severe setup, there will be sufficient
instability, shear, and forcing for a marginal threat of a few
borderline severe storms. In terms of rainfall, guidance leans
towards a more modest event, with most areas seeing around a half
inch or rain or less.

High temperature forecasts Sunday are uncertain and will be
dictated by the exact frontal timing. Model guidance is in good
agreement that Monday will be quite cool, with most areas in the
low to mid 70s. Rain chances will gradually diminish from west to
east during the day.

The forecast begins to become more uncertain midweek as the initial
trough interacts with a second reinforcing shortwave digging into
its rear. Cluster analysis shows about a 40% chance that both upper
level lows will consolidate into one trough that stays over or just
west of the area. In this outcome we would stay much cooler and
possibly showery, with the chance of more significant rains
returning towards the weekend. Another 40% of guidance sends the
trough east of the area, which would result in ridging returning,
and warmer and drier conditions. The last 20% of guidance shows
something in between these outcomes. So there is still no
preferred solution for the middle to end of next week, but any of
these outcomes will still allow for much more fall-like weather
than we have been seeing lately. Bumped NBM temperatures up a bit
to try to get closer to the median of these two different model
camps for Wednesday to Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with ongoing
thunderstorms expected to stay north of both the Kansas and
Missouri borders. Southerly winds will increase mid morning, with
gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range expected at TUL/RVS into the
afternoon. A very low chance of shower and thunderstorm
development affecting mainly BVO toward the end of the TAF period
does exist, but chance is low enough to not include in the current
TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  75  88  60 /  20  20  50  70
FSM   98  75  93  69 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   98  74  92  61 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   98  70  85  55 /  20  30  70  70
FYV   94  71  88  63 /  20  20  30  50
BYV   92  70  89  65 /  30  20  40  50
MKO   96  74  91  60 /  10  10  30  60
MIO   96  71  87  58 /  20  20  50  70
F10   98  74  91  59 /  10  10  30  60
HHW   97  73  93  67 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12