084
FXUS65 KTWC 240915
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Ample moisture will bring daily chances for thunderstorms to the
area into next week. Locally heavy rain will be likely with any
thunderstorm that develops, along with an isolated chance for
strong wind gusts. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees as high
pressure builds overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Unseasonably deep moisture for late June remains in
place over SE AZ, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and
precipitable water values between 1.5 inches east and 1.9 inches
west. Another morning with convection hanging on through the
overnight hours. Main focus for storms continues to be locally
heavy rainfall with localized flooding issues.

For today, the deepest moisture axis continues through Santa Cruz
county and the T.O. Nation as modest mid level drying tries to
mix into eastern areas. We`ll once again have plenty of debris
cloud to sort through early with slower insolation in most
locations. WPC has us up to a slight risk in the excessive
rainfall outlook today, and looks warranted as we continue to
manage solid convective potential across most of the area today.
Wet microbursts again the main concern, possibly over more of the
area than yesterday.

High pressure will strengthen over the desert southwest with a new
high center consolidating nearly overhead over the next 36 hours.
With the depth of the moisture in place we`ll probably only manage
2 to 5 degrees of heating with this. Mid level warming will tend
to suppress convection, but we should keep a chance of
thunderstorms going even as we slowly mix out some of the moisture
over the next few days.

Another (weaker) easterly wave will push from Mexico into the
Pacific around Wednesday or so. A little further south, but still
in a position to push a fresh but likely weaker surge of moisture
toward the area later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
SCT-BKN 080-120ft AGL with scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA this
morning. Brief MFR conditions possible with storms. Showers will
diminish after 24/13Z before chances increase between 24/20Z to
25/03Z. Overall winds generally remain under 12 kts with
occasional gusts to 20 kts in the afternoon, while strong gusty
outflow winds are possible around any thunderstorms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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