722
FXUS65 KTWC 180922
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 AM MST Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures a few
degrees cooler than normal through the work week. Temperatures
are forecast to warm above normal again Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

With the western United States under broad cyclonic flow,
generally below normal temperatures and dry conditions are
forecast across southern Arizona through the remainder of the work
week. With a modest pressure gradient under increased flow aloft,
afternoon breeziness can also be expected. Temperatures rise to
around normal on Thursday ahead of an approaching trough, then
come back down on Saturday as the trough crosses. Moisture should
remain well east of the area with this trough passage, keeping the
forecast dry.

Looking at next week, ensemble mid-level height anomalies range
from near to above normal, then more likely above normal by the
end of the week. Surface temperature anomalies reflect the same
trend as temperatures will likely be above normal through the
remainder of the month. Deterministic guidance shows signs of a
closed low in the region mid to late next week, which may impact
the temperature forecast away from this trend. That said, this
forecast low isn`t accompanied with a notable cold push and is
still washed out in the ensemble mean height field, which keeps
the forecast on the warmer side for now. Some low-end moisture may
creep back in from the east next week as well however overall
precipitation probabilities remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z

FEW clouds around 6k feet through 18/14Z this morning, then mostly
SKC with some high cirrus through the forecast period. South to
southeasterly winds increase to 10 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 kts
after 18/16Z, then light and variable after 19/03Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions with temperatures near to a few degrees below
normal forecast through the work week. Minimum relative humidity
down to 15 to 20 percent in lower elevations with 20 to 35 percent
in higher elevations. South to southwesterly winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph through Friday, then becoming west to
northwesterly on Saturday. Building high pressure will bring
lighter winds and above normal temperatures Sunday into next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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