Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
139 FXUS65 KTWC 230904 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 204 AM MST Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer. High pressure will push temperatures back to well above average this week. && .DISCUSSION...Sunny skies are in store for Southeast Arizona along with warming trend. A ridge of high pressure will start to build across the Intermountain west starting today and lasting through week, and possibly into next week. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index has increase the signal for warmer than normal temperatures up to 80-90% agreement from the previous run. This signal ramps up on Tuesday and lasting into Sunday. Also, there is good agreement from the ensemble models on the strength and position of the ridge. This translates to temperatures being 4 to 10 degrees above normal and at or near record temperatures, especially for Tucson. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk for areas Tucson west and Minor Heat Risk east of Tucson. There are isolated pockets of Major Heat Risk in central to west Pima County which can impact heat sensitive individuals. One sliver of reprieve in the temperatures, and unlike what the June, July, and August provided, will be the morning lows being in the 70s for the Tucson west and 60s in the east through this warming period on Wednesday through Saturday. A 10 degrees cooler than the preceding summer months lows but a few degrees above seasonal morning lows in late September. Today is good time to get ready for late summer heat as it will be here soon. Looking beyond this weekend, ensemble models don`t offer much hope in shedding the warm temperatures. The general consensus will be a broad ridge of high pressure over the region into the first week of October. This points to temperatures being above normal and a warm start to the end of September into October. && .AVIATION...valid through 24/12z. Mostly SKC through the period. SFC winds will generally be less than 10 kts and mainly terrain driven. Occasional afternoon gust is possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a warming trend through the week. Temperatures will be 4 to 10 degrees above normal and peak by the end of the week. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph with the occasional gust. Min relative humidities will be in the teens for the lower elevations and the middle 20s for the higher elevations. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Strongman Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson