182
FXUS65 KTWC 150934
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 AM MST Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot weekend with an Excessive Heat warning in effect
for portions of southeastern Arizona. Temperatures decrease a bit
early next week before likely heating up again by Thursday.
Moisture may begin to increase late next week which would bring
the potential for high-based thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A clear sky prevailed across southern Arizona per
latest satellite imagery. With yesterdays upper level trof to our
east, high pressure will be building over the area this weekend
with temperatures heating up once again. Most of the lower
elevations will be under an Excessive Heat Warning this weekend.

Monday: Next Pacific trof moves inland bringing gusty winds to
the area which may lead to some fire weather issues. See fire
weather section below for details. High temperatures will be
2 to 6 degrees cooler than Sunday.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Trofiness hangs over the western CONUS for
afternoon gusty winds. Highs Tuesday will be near normal then be
2 to 4 degrees hotter on Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday: High pressure builds in from the east
bringing hotter temperatures to the area with current forecast
highs being the hottest for most of the area so far in 2024. There
are some GEFS/EPS members indicating that it could be hotter with
near records highs. At this time, I didn`t deviate from the NBM
temperature guidance. What is interesting at end of next week is
the moisture increase potential bringing a slight chance of mainly
high-based mostly dry thunderstorms which may continue into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
SKC. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 15/16z and
then again after 16/04z. At other times, NWLY/WLY 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 22 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions continue this weekend.
Winds should be lighter but typical afternoon breeziness is still
expected. Minimum relative humidities this weekend will range from
4 to 9 percent in the lower elevations and 9 to 14 percent in the
mountains. Winds increase on Monday for a few areas near critical
fire weather thresholds, but not widespread enough at this time
to warrant a watch to be issued at this time. Heating back up next
Thursday and Friday with hottest temperatures of 2024 possible.
Also at the end of next week there are signs that there will be an
increase in moisture that may lead to a slight chance of high
based mostly dry thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of
Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST
  Sunday for AZZ504>506-509.

 Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ501-502.

&&

$$

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