Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
554 FXUS65 KTWC 190817 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 117 AM MST Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures near seasonal normal through the start of the weekend. Temperatures will warm to above normal on Sunday and into the new week. && .DISCUSSION...This early morning water vapor imagery shows a low pressure center over California where it will bring southwesterly flow across the region today through Saturday. Ensemble models are in a solid agreement that it will be mainly a dry weather system bringing breezy afternoons and cooler temperatures, as in around to slightly below seasonal normal. This will be a nice short reprieve from the hot summer temperatures and that feeling of late September Fall. Saturday is forecasted to be one of the coolest days this week. Sunday and the new week, ensemble models show a ridge of high pressure building over the region. This will be broad ridge to bring warmer than normal temperatures and lighter winds. With that, temperatures will start trending warmer on Sunday and through most of the new week. Tucson west can experience temperatures close to the 100 degree mark by Monday (10% chance) and Tuesday (25% chance). 100 degree chances will increase to 50% for the last half of the week for Tucson and west. This broad ridge will likely stay around for most of the week and keeping temperatures elevated. #anotherhotweek. && .AVIATION...valid through 20/12Z. SKC-FEW high clouds at or around 20k ft AGL throughout the forecast period. SFC winds light and variable this morning and again after 20/04z. Otherwise, SFC winds will be Southerly to Southwesterly at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts up to 22kts, especially at terminals along the International Border. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with temperatures within a few degrees of normal through Saturday. 20-foot winds will be southerly-southwesterly 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to around 25 through the rest of the week. Stronger breezes can be expected on Friday afternoon, especially south and east of Tucson. Min RHs will generally be 15 to 20 percent in the lower locations and 20 to 30 percent in the higher locations. Starting Sunday, high pressure ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds through the first half of the new week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Strongman Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson