Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
953
FNUS55 KTWC 132147
FWFTWC
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Arizona
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 PM MST Thu Jun 13 2024
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
20-FOOT WIND FORECAST OF `LIGHT WINDS` INDICATES MAINLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
.DISCUSSION...
An increase in limited mid-level moisture this afternoon has
created increased cloud cover, though non-zero chances for any
rain or even dry lightning strikes remain low. The isolated chance
of a lightning strike will be highest west then north of Tucson
through this early evening, then into higher terrain northeast of
Tucson late tonight and early Friday. Expect min RH values
of 3-9 percent in the lower elevations and 7-15 percent in the
mountains through this weekend, along with poor overnight recoveries
between 20-35 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow
typical diurnal patterns, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due
to strong surface heating. Winds will increase a bit tomorrow,
especially in areas near the Arizona / New Mexico border, where a
Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Near critical fire weather
conditions elsewhere on Friday, but with winds below critical
levels. Another chance of increased winds may arrive on Monday.
AZZ150-141415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O`odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
247 PM MST Thu Jun 13 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy.
* Min Temperature..........67 to 77 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 degs.
* Max Humidity.............19 to 29 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 4 to 8 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 15 mph in the evening
becoming light.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest around 20 mph increasing to
around 30 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature..........98 to 108 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 degs.
* Min Humidity.............3 to 10 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 10 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest around 25 mph becoming west
around 15 mph in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............10473 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Southwest 14 to 19 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (198987 knot-ft).
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature..........65 to 75 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............18 to 28 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 10 mph in the evening
becoming light.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Sunny.
* Max Temperature..........101 to 111 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 2 to 5 degs.
* Min Humidity.............3 to 11 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming west around 10 mph
in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............11658 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Southwest 7 to 9 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (104922 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 67 to 77. Highs 100 to 110. South wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 5 to 15 pct.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 95 to 105. South wind
around 20 mph. Minimum Humidity 6 to 16 pct.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 63 to 73. Highs 93 to 103. South wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 7 to 17 pct.
.JUNETEENTH...Clear. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 95 to 105.
.THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 64 to 74. Highs 102 to 112.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 150 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
LOCATION (2550 MSL)
$$
AZZ151-141415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-
247 PM MST Thu Jun 13 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy.
* Min Temperature..........65 to 75 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............22 to 32 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 5 to 9 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly
sunny.
* Max Temperature..........94 to 104 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 degs.
* Min Humidity.............4 to 9 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest around 30 mph decreasing to
around 20 mph in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............8650 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Southwest 20 to 24 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (207600 knot-ft).
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 degs.
* Max Humidity.............16 to 26 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 4 to 8 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 15 mph in the evening
becoming light.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West around 15 mph shifting to the north
after midnight.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Sunny.
* Max Temperature..........95 to 105 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............4 to 9 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming west around 10 mph
in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............11442 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........South 9 knots shifting to the southwest
11 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (125862 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 95 to 105. Southwest wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 6 to 11 pct.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows 60 to 70. Highs 92 to 102. Southwest wind
around 20 mph. Minimum Humidity 6 to 12 pct.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 58 to 68. Highs 89 to 99. Southwest wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 8 to 16 pct.
.JUNETEENTH...Clear. Lows 57 to 67. Highs 91 to 101.
.THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 98 to 108.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 151 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE BUENOS AIRES N.W.R. LOCATION
(3500 MSL)
$$
AZZ152-141415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
247 PM MST Thu Jun 13 2024
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY...
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy.
* Min Temperature..........67 to 77 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 2 to 5 degs.
* Max Humidity.............24 to 34 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 10 to 14 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 20 mph decreasing to
around 10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly
sunny.
* Max Temperature..........96 to 106 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 degs.
* Min Humidity.............5 to 9 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest around 10 mph increasing to
around 20 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
* Mixing Height............13581 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Southwest 16 to 22 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (298782 knot-ft).
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 4 to 8 degs.
* Max Humidity.............15 to 25 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 6 to 10 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 20 mph becoming northwest
around 10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West around 15 mph shifting to the north
after midnight.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Sunny.
* Max Temperature..........95 to 105 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............4 to 10 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming west around 15 mph
in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............10510 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........South 9 knots shifting to the southwest
13 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (136630 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 95 to 105. West wind around
15 mph. Minimum Humidity 5 to 10 pct.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 92 to 102. Southwest wind
around 20 mph. Minimum Humidity 5 to 10 pct.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 58 to 68. Highs 90 to 100. Southwest wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 7 to 13 pct.
.JUNETEENTH...Clear. Lows 58 to 68. Highs 92 to 102.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 96 to 106.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 152 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE CHIRICAHUA N.M. LOCATION (5400 MSL)
$$
AZZ153-141415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
247 PM MST Thu Jun 13 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers.
* Min Temperature..........62 to 72 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs.
* Max Humidity.............34 to 44 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 16 to 20 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 20 mph becoming north
around 10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West around 20 mph becoming southwest
around 10 mph after midnight.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers.
* Max Temperature..........83 to 93 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 degs.
* Min Humidity.............7 to 15 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..East around 10 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
* Mixing Height............12861 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........East 22 knots shifting to the southwest
25 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (321525 knot-ft).
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature..........55 to 65 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 4 to 8 degs.
* Max Humidity.............24 to 34 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 8 to 12 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 15 mph shifting to the north
after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature..........85 to 95 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............6 to 13 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..East around 10 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
* Mixing Height............10441 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Southeast 8 knots shifting to the
southwest 12 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (125292 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 57 to 67. Highs 85 to 95. West wind around
15 mph. Minimum Humidity 7 to 12 pct.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows 55 to 65. Highs 81 to 91. West wind around
15 mph. Minimum Humidity 6 to 12 pct.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 79 to 89. West wind around
15 mph. Minimum Humidity 7 to 14 pct.
.JUNETEENTH...Clear. Lows 52 to 62. Highs 82 to 92.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
56 to 66. Highs 85 to 95.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 153 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE POINT OF PINES LOCATION (6040 MSL)
$$
AZZ154-141415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
247 PM MST Thu Jun 13 2024
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy then becoming partly
cloudy.
* Min Temperature..........64 to 74 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............20 to 30 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Up 7 to 11 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly
sunny.
* Max Temperature..........85 to 95 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 degs.
* Min Humidity.............5 to 12 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 10 mph increasing to
southwest around 20 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............6 or high.
* Mixing Height............14346 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........Southwest 20 to 24 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (315612 knot-ft).
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature..........59 to 69 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 degs.
* Max Humidity.............13 to 20 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Down 9 to 13 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 20 mph decreasing to around
10 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 15 to 20 mph.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............4 or low.
.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Sunny.
* Max Temperature..........84 to 94 degs.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............4 to 11 pct.
* 24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 10 mph shifting to the west
in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* Chance of Precip.........0 pct.
* LAL......................1.
* Haines Index.............5 or moderate.
* Mixing Height............12144 ft agl.
* Transport Winds..........South 10 knots shifting to the southwest
13 knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (157872 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 84 to 94. Southwest wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 6 to 13 pct.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows 58 to 68. Highs 82 to 92. Southwest wind
around 20 mph. Minimum Humidity 6 to 12 pct.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows 55 to 65. Highs 80 to 90. Southwest wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 8 to 16 pct.
.JUNETEENTH...Clear. Lows 55 to 65. Highs 81 to 91.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 86 to 96.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 154 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ZONE
$$
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