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FXUS63 KUNR 130843
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
243 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At or above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Unsettled weather over the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024



Current upper level analysis shows zonal flow over the forecast
area this morning. At the surface, low pressure sits over northern
MN, while weak surface high sits just west of our region. Radar
currently highlights showers/storms over northwestern SD.
Temperatures currently sit in the mid 50s over northeastern
Wyoming to upper 60s over south central SD, with light northeast
winds.

Current elevated showers/storms will continue into this morning
over northwestern SD into central SD as weak disturbance moves
over the state. As high pressure builds in, expect another warm
day today, with highs in the 80s across most of the forecast area,
and mid 70s across the Black Hills. Winds will shift to the south
later tonight into Friday morning, as the high shifts eastward.
Low level jet also sets up over the region, coupled with theta-e
advection will allow for more showers/storms Friday morning into
the afternoon, generally in southwestern to south central SD.


Broad ridge builds over the northern plains early weekend, however
multiple disturbances will allow unsettled weather to continue,
with weak waves impacting the region later Friday, and again on
Saturday night. Cannot rule out a strong to severe storm Friday
with modest shear and CAPE values 1000-2000 j/Kg, however models
show strong cap in place that may dampen severe chances.
Saturday`s severe storm chances will be dependent on the timing
of the wave and associated frontal boundary. Models currently show
the disturbance moving through Late Saturday, which may limit
severe potential. By Sunday, upper ridge begins to slide towards
the Great Lakes region, and southwest flow sets up aloft. Multiple
disturbances riding the southwest flow will allow for near daily
chances for storms early next week, along with cooler
temperatures, with Mondays highs only reaching into the mid 60s
for much of the region. A bit more uncertainty in the models as we
progress toward mid-week, however models point to a general
warming trend back to near normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1042 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
until around 12z, mainly across northwest SD. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...13