013
FXUS63 KUNR 241836
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1236 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry weather with much warmer than average temperatures

-Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially
 Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mean ridging can be expected through the rest of the week with
temps trending well above normal. Hot conds expected Wed and Thur
with temps well into the 80s and 90s under breezy southerly flow,
with dry weather. Near record to record high temperatures are
expected for parts of northeast WY tomorrow with highs in the mid
to upper 90s forecast. Cool front will move through Thur, with
temps dropping back into the 80s and few low 90s through Sun.
Pattern becomes unsettled next week as a series of stronger
impulses move through the northern stream. Expect that a strong
cold front will move through the region sometime early next week,
possibly with some rain and maybe high elevation snow. However,
confidence in pattern evolution and details remain quite low given
inconsistencies from model to model and run to run (also
indicated well in ensemble spread) likely the result of downstream
upper flow blocking tendencies. Any cool spell next week will
likely be short lived given strong tendencies for the western NOAM
ridge to rebuild.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1031 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1232 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Temperatures will be much warmer than average through the rest of
the week, resulting in continued elevated fire weather
conditions. Near critical to critical conditions are expected
Wednesday and Thursday due to low relative humidity and breezy to
windy conditions. A red flag warning is in effect for portions of
northeast WY Wed. No precipitation chances are expected through
the rest of the week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for SDZ322.
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ314>317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Wong
FIRE WEATHER...JC