488
FXUS63 KUNR 230714
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
114 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Aside from a few sprinkles today, dry weather with temps slowly
 warming back up this week.

-Elevated fire conditions at times this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Water vapor shows short wave trof diving through the Northern
Rockies, with high over the eastern Pacific and ridge building
into the Pac NW. At the surface, trof is shifting eastward across
eastern MT/WY.

Short wave trof will shift through the Northern PLains today, with
associated surface trof/front creating some breezy northwest
winds. Could be some virga/sprinkles with the trof, but otherwise
will be a warm day with highs ranging from around 70 in northeast
WY to the lower 80s in south central SD.

Upper ridge will gradually expand eastward through the western
CONUS early this week and into the Plains mid to late week. Dry
conditions with highs warming back up into the 80s by mid week
with a few 90s possible. Warmest day likely to be Thursday with
thermal ridge overhead.

Northern stream jet gradually shifts back into the northern tier
late week into the weekend with upper ridge flattening. This would
bring a slight cool down, although still above average temps. Any
chance for precip looks to hold til early next week as there is at
least some model consistency with an upper trof moving through
the Northern Rockies during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1046 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1257 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Breezy northwest winds expected today with the passage of a
surface trof, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Could
be a few sprinkles with the trof, but chances for wetting rains
will remain near zero. Temperatures will warm back up through the
week as an upper ridge builds back, resulting in continued
elevated fire weather conditions at times. After today, no
precipitation chances are expected through the week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...Dye
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson