Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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793 FXUS61 KAKQ 120015 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 815 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moves in from mid to late week with a warmup expected. A cold front moves through Friday evening into Friday night with a chance for a few showers and storms. Otherwise, a dry and hot pattern continues into next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday... Key message: - Partial clearing and mild overnight. Some patchy fog possible along the coast toward sunrise. The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered over New England embedded within an upper level trough that has pushed offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast this evening. At the surface, weak sfc trough is now offshore, with broad 1016+mb sfc high pressure over the Ohio/TN River Valleys slowly building east across the Appalachians. Have maintained some lingering shower chances over NE NC through ~10pm, with weak seabreeze boundary and remnant outflows from earlier evening convection still pushing west as of this writing. Otherwise, gradual clearing into the late night hours. Some mid to high clouds push in from the west late tonight. Patchy fog is possible along the coast and into NE NC toward sunrise Wednesday. Otherwise, pleasantly mild overnight with early morning lows in the mid 50s inland and low- mid 60s close to the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - A warming trend is expected Wednesday into Thursday with mainly dry weather. An upper level trough moves offshore Wed with high pressure centered over the area. Near normal highs are expected with temps in the mid 80s for most (lower 80s along the coast). Wed will be mostly dry, however, the 12z CAMs show the potential for a few light sprinkles to develop in the late afternoon and early evening across N central VA in response to a shortwave moving through. Given high pressure overhead, the most likely solution is that the shortwave causes partly to mostly cloudy skies. Nevertheless, have added a very slight chance (15% PoP) for a stray light shower/sprinkle along and N of I-64 in case it overperforms. High pressure moves offshore Thu with temps warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. Lows in the 60s are expected both Wed and Thu nights.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Hot Friday with highs in the mid 90s. - This weekend is trending cooler - Hot and dry weather continues all of next week. An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds E. The overall trend is for an upper trough across eastern Canada to be a little stronger, and as such, the core of the upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the East Coast, gradually sliding offshore. The forecast for Fri remains on track with deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising to 18-19C. As such, highs Fri looks to average in the mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. However, given the continental origin of this airmass, dew points continue to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew points will be a little higher, but given a rather weak pressure gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual air temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri afternoon. A cold front drops S across the local area Fri evening into Fri night with at least isolated showers/storms possible across N/NE portions of the FA. For now, have maintained 25-30% PoPs across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore with 15-20% PoPs farther S/SW. The upper level trough moves offshore Sat with high pressure moving into interior New England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun. As such, this weekend is trending cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland both Sat and Sun. Humidity will also remain low all weekend with dew points in the mid- upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. A large upper level ridge builds across the East Coast next week with a prolonged period of hot and dry weather expected. Highs rise into the low-mid 90s Mon (mid 80s along the coast) and mid 90s on Tue. WPC has maintained a moderate risk (40% chance) for excessive heat from June 19-21 across N portions of the FA with a slight risk (20% chance) elsewhere. An extended period of dry weather also appears increasingly likely. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 00z TAF period should persist through Wednesday night. Light/variable winds become E-SE tomorrow late morning and afternoon <10kt. Guidance continues to show potential for a brief period of MVFR/IFR VIS between 8-11z (4-7 AM EDT) Wednesday. A combination of mid and high level clouds move in from W to E on Wed. Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with mainly dry weather Wed night through Fri. A cold front crosses the area Fri evening into Fri night with a low chance for late day/evening showers or storms possible (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY).
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&& .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday... Key messages: - Winds generally 15 kt or less until Thursday when S-SE winds increase ahead of a cold front. A cold front will push south across all waters early Saturday morning with SCA conditions possible Saturday. N to NE winds have persisted around 10 to 15 kt with some higher gusts from earlier this morning into the afternoon as high pressure with drier air has been pushing south. Winds will relax later this evening but remain NE to E around 10-12 kt. For Wed winds become SE and with the high pushing offshore to our north the pressure gradient will tighten over the lower Bay and coastal waters. This should increase the SE wind to 10 to 15 kt by Wed afternoon with a few higher gusts possible. These SE winds persist into early evening before decreasing Wed night as the gradient relaxes. SE winds should increase again Thu to 15 kt from late morning into the afternoon but remain below SCA conditions though marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into Friday ahead of cold front. There is a better chance of SCA conditions early Sat morning until mid afternoon Sat as N winds increase behind a cold front. The surge of cooler and drier air should push winds to 15 to 20 kt with some higher gusts. These events have tended to overperform and guidance has increased the wind some for Saturday morning into early afternoon. Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft for most of this week until the front pushes south early Saturday. At this time, it appears seas will stay below 5 ft through the forecast period, though the Bay will likely build to 3 ft Saturday. Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon beach cams suggest waves around 2 ft with the low rip current risk. A low risk should persist into Wed. Increasing SE winds Thu may increase the risk later this week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...LKB/RMM AVIATION...MAM/RMM MARINE...JAO