-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
471
FXUS61 KAKQ 111913
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible this
afternoon along the seabreeze. High pressure moves in from mid to
late week with a warmup expected. A cold front moves through Friday
evening into Friday night with a chance for a few showers and
storms. Otherwise, a dry and hot pattern continues into next
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this
afternoon close to the coast. An isolated strong storm is also
possible.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered over
interior New England embedded within an upper level trough over the
East Coast. Pleasant this afternoon with temps as of 230 PM in the
mid 70s NW to the lower 80s SE under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible this
afternoon across mainly NE NC with lower chances across extreme SE
VA and the Eastern Shore. SPC has maintained a Marginal SVR risk
across far SE VA and NE NC for wind/hail. The limiting factor is
relatively low moisture (MLCAPE only around 500 J/kg). The NW flow
aloft will provide some shear, so if anything becomes organized
enough, at least some isolated stronger downbursts or small to
marginally severe hail will be possible. However, 12z CAMs have
continued to trend weaker. Any showers/storm taper off quickly this
evening with dry weather and clearing skies early tonight. Clouds
begin to increase from W to E late tonight. Highs this afternoon in
the upper 70s N to the lower 80s S with overnight lows in the mid
50s inland and low-mid 60s close to the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Wednesday into Thursday with dry
weather.

An upper level trough moves offshore Wed with high pressure centered
over the area. Near normal highs are expected with temps in the mid
80s for most (lower 80s along the coast). Wed will be mostly dry,
however, the 12z CAMs show the potential for a few light sprinkles
to develop in the late afternoon and early evening across N central
VA in response to a shortwave moving through. Given high pressure
overhead, the most likely solution is that the shortwave causes
partly to mostly cloudy skies. Nevertheless, have added a very
slight chance (15% PoP) for a stray light shower/sprinkle along and
N of I-64 in case it overperforms. High pressure moves offshore Thu
with temps warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s under mostly
sunny skies. Lows in the 60s are expected both Wed and Thu nights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot Friday with highs in the mid 90s.

- This weekend is trending cooler

- Hot and dry weather continues all of next week.

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds E. The
overall trend is for an upper trough across eastern Canada to be a
little stronger, and as such, the core of the upper ridge stays well
off to our W/SW over the Plains states. At the surface, high
pressure will remain centered along the East Coast, gradually
sliding offshore. The forecast for Fri remains on track with deep
mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising to 18-19C. As such, highs Fri
looks to average in the mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro
RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. However, given
the continental origin of this airmass, dew points continue to be
fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate
the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp. Near
the coast, dew points will be a little higher, but given a rather
weak pressure gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual
air temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories
look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper
90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri afternoon.

A cold front drops S across the local area Fri evening into Fri
night with at least isolated showers/storms possible across N/NE
portions of the FA. For now, have maintained 25-30% PoPs across the
Northern Neck and Eastern Shore with 15-20% PoPs farther S/SW. The
upper level trough moves offshore Sat with high pressure moving into
interior New England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun.
As such, this weekend is trending cooler with highs in the low-mid
80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland both Sat and Sun.
Humidity will also remain low all weekend with dew points in the mid-
upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast.

A large upper level ridge builds across the East Coast next week
with a prolonged period of hot and dry weather expected. Highs rise
into the low-mid 90s Mon (mid 80s along the coast) and mid 90s on
Tue. WPC has maintained a moderate risk (40% chance) for excessive
heat from June 19-21 across N portions of the FA with a slight risk
(20% chance) elsewhere. An extended period of dry weather also
appears increasingly likely.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 18z taf period. SCT-BKN CU
(3500-5000 ft CIGs) linger this afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing mainly across NE NC. Brief
gusty winds and hail as well as IFR VIS due to heavy rain remain
possible in the strongest storms (though coverage of stronger
storms is expected to be isolated at best). Mainly isolated
showers and storms are possible across SE VA and the MD Eastern
Shore as well. Given low coverage of convection, have VCTS at
ECG/SBY and VCSH at ORF (due to storms likely remaining farther
SW). Any showers or storms end this evening with clearing skies
and calm winds. However, models have begun showing the potential
for some patchy fog across the Eastern Shore tonight (including
SBY) with MVFR/IFR VIS possible between 6-12z Wed. A combination
of mid and high level clouds move in from W to E late tonight
into Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight
through Fri. However, cannot completely rule out a brief, light
shower or sprinkle Wed afternoon near RIC. A cold front crosses
the area Fri evening into Fri night with at least isolated
showers or storms possible (best chance from the Northern Neck
to the Eastern Shore). Flight restrictions are possible in any
storms. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Winds generally 15 kt or less until Thursday when S-SE winds
  increase ahead of a cold front. A cold front will push south
  across all waters early Saturday morning with SCA conditions
  possible Saturday.

N to NE winds have persisted around 10 to 15 kt with some
higher gusts from earlier this morning into the afternoon as
high pressure with drier air has been pushing south. Winds will
relax later this evening but remain NE to E around 10-12 kt.
For Wed winds become SE and with the high pushing offshore to
our north the pressure gradient will tighten over the lower Bay
and coastal waters. This should increase the SE wind to 10 to 15
kt by Wed afternoon with a few higher gusts possible. These SE
winds persist into early evening before decreasing Wed night as
the gradient relaxes.

SE winds should increase again Thu to 15 kt from late morning
into the afternoon but remain below SCA conditions though
marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into
Friday ahead of cold front.

There is a better chance of SCA conditions early Sat morning
until mid afternoon Sat as N winds increase behind a cold front.
The surge of cooler and drier air should push winds to 15 to 20
kt with some higher gusts. These events have tended to
overperform and guidance has increased the wind some for
Saturday morning into early afternoon.

Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft for most of this week until
the front pushes south early Saturday. At this time, it appears
seas will stay below 5 ft through the forecast period, though
the Bay will likely build to 3 ft Saturday.

Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon beach cams
suggest waves around 2 ft with the low rip current risk. A low
risk should persist into Wed. Increasing SE winds Thu may
increase the risk later this week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JAO