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281
FXUS61 KBGM 161748
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will continue dry and warm
conditions through the rest of the weekend. Hot and humid
conditions expected through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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145 PM Update...

Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge starting to
build in with surface winds becoming more southerly west of I81
early this afternoon. Southerly return flow will develop across
the entire region later this afternoon and overnight with dew
points beginning to nudge up.

Tomorrow will be our first of many hot days as 850 mb
temperatures push up towards 20C and 500 mb heights rise above
590 dm. Forecast soundings tomorrow still have plenty of dry air
in the mid levels and upstream soundings across the Great Lakes
and mid Mississippi river valley from 12Z also contain some dry
air above 850 mb. Decided to lower dew points a bit tomorrow
from late morning into the evening with some of that dry air
mixing in with day time heating. With soil moisture also
starting to go below climatology, more of the solar heating
tomorrow will go towards heating the air rather than
evaporation some of the NBM 90th was used to bump up highs a few
degrees from current model guidance. With the lower dew points,
heat indexes look to get warm but most of the area will be
staying below 90 outside of some of the river valleys and
coastal plain of Lake Ontario.

Tomorrow night will be staying warm with lows likely around 70
degrees. Heat continues to advect in aloft as with greater
amounts of water vapor slowing the efficiency of radiational
cooling at night so there will not be much relief from the heat.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update...

Tuesday will see the heat and humidity increasing across the
region. Surface high pressure will be stationed out in the
Atlantic with warm and moist SW return flow pumping into the
area on Tuesday. Heat index will likely approach triple digits,
especially in the urban areas during the afternoon hours. There
is still a little uncertainty with temperatures, as isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and this
would ease the heat for some. Even so, a heat advisory is
looking likely for most of the NY counties on Tuesday as
criteria is 95F for NY. In PA, the criteria for an advisory
starts at 100F and there will certain be some potential in the
urban areas of the Wyoming Valley for this value to be exceeded.
For now, will continue to highlight the heat threat in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM Update...

The heat and humidity will persist throughout the work week. As
mentioned in the short term period, heat headlines may be
needed, however there is still some uncertainty. Forecast
soundings are showing over 2000 J/kg of CAPE depending where the
high pressure actually sets up will determine what type of
convective activity we will see. There is some concern towards
the end of the week as we are on the periphery of the high and
flow aloft turns a little more west-northwesterly. The stronger
westerly flow does look like it stays further north in Canada,
but definitely worth watching, as heat waves and stronger NW
flow can lead to strong convective complexes to develop.

Conditions will continue to slightly improve through the end of
the week and into the weekend as 500mb heights slowly fall.
Some 80s will finally be sprinkled in with the 90s for Friday
and with even slightly cooler temps for Saturday. Lows will drop
into the 60s both nights. A slow moving cold front will pass
through late in the week or at the start of the weekend, with
more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with this
frontal passage.

Finally, will also have to watch what happens with moisture
from a tropical wave system that models have pushing into the SE
U.S. at the end of the week. Some model guidance shows the
moisture riding up the approaching front and bringing some
heavy rain into our region towards the end of the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected to remain through the next 24 hours at
all terminals. Tonight as warm air begins to move in, a low
level jet develops tonight but low level shear looks to stay
below the 30 knot threshold but could get close for a few hours
around 6Z, mainly for SYR, ITH and RME.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...AJG