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589
FXUS61 KBTV 060822
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers to the
region today, with some locally heavy rainfall possible. More cloud
cover will keep temperatures from being less hot than recent days
with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Unsettled and cooler
weather remains anticipated Friday through the weekend, with showers
finally becoming less numerous after Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 417 AM EDT Thursday...Showers across the region this morning
associated with dwindle by the throughout the morning, before more
widespread showers associated with the cold front approaching from
the west move into the region. Model soundings support the potential
for heavy rainfall, with PWAT values near 1.7 inches, tall and
skinny CAPE profiles, and deep warm cloud depths. The Excessive
Rainfall Outlook from WPC continues to have the region in a marginal
risk today, although dry antecedent conditions mitigate the threat,
although slow storm motions and any training storms will be
something to watch for given the favorable environment for heavy
downpours. SPC also has portion of the forecast area in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather, with the primary threat being gusty winds,
although cloudy skies will limit the amount of instability across
the region with limited diurnal heating. Temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than the last few days, with daytime highs
climbing into the 70s to low 80s.

The cold front will exiting the region sometime Friday morning.
Depending on how quickly the showers move out of the region, the
plentiful low level moisture will allow for fog or low stratus
development overnight tonight, with several models highlighting east
of the Green Mountains. Overnight lows will be quite mild tonight,
although a few cooler than the previous night, with temperatures
only dropping into the 50s to low 60s. Behind the cold front,
temperatures aloft will cool as an upper-level low centered over the
Great Lakes works into the region, with some scattered showers
possible in the afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will
generally be in the 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 417 AM EDT Thursday...Showers continue on Friday night into
Saturday as surface and upper level lows remain anchored north of
our area. Cyclonic flow will bring periods of showers through this
timeframe. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals overnight
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Saturday maximum
temperatures will be a little cooler than seasonal normals due to
clouds and periods of rain showers, mainly lower 60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 417 AM EDT Thursday...Periods of showers continue from Saturday
night right through Monday as aforementioned surface and upper level
low pressure systems take a long time to finally push eastward.
Temperatures will remain cool through this period. Temperatures will
then begin to warm headed into the middle of next week as surface
and upper level ridges build into our area and we`ll also see a
return to drier weather. No significant systems on the horizon at
the moment.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions currently prevailing at all
terminals tonight, which is expected to continue for the next
several hours. Winds overnight will generally be less than 10
knots from the south or southwest. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will increase towards daybreak, with
localized MVFR/IFR conditions possible within some heavier
showers, with ceilings gradually lowering due to increased
moisture. More widespread MVFR and localized IFR ceilings will
be possible after 18Z as another round of showers and
thunderstorms arrive.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Numerous SHRA,
Isolated TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Numerous SHRA,
Isolated TSRA.
Sunday Night:  Scattered SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Scattered SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible at
some climate sites.

Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena and
Plattsburgh today.


Record Precipitation:

June 6:
KPBG: 1.05/2008
KMSS: 1.09/1953
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...Kutikoff/Kremer