-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
307
FXUS64 KEPZ 271947
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
147 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue today, the weekend,
and into next week. Localized flash flooding could occur with
stronger storms. Lowland high temperatures will remain hot in the
100s for the foreseeable future. Wind speeds will remain light
with the exception of gusty winds from thunderstorms.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Currently, cloud cover is present in the southern NM and TX
region. There are thunderstorms present in the Sacramento
mountains and the Gila region. Due to the presence of cloud cover
and cooler temperatures, the lowlands will see less activity than
yesterday. However, PWATs are still very high at 1.2 to 1.5
inches across the region and dewpoints are high in the 60s. This
abundance of moisture and a breakdown in the ridge over the region
means that thunderstorms can still form across the CWA, especially
in higher elevations where orographic lifting can take place.
Cold pooling will easily provide lift for heavy rain producing
storms to form in the lowlands where lifting mechanisms are less
prevalent. MLCAPE is spotty and mostly concentrated in the
Bootheel region of NM with values of 300-700 J/kg. Shear is very
low at less than 15kts across the region, so chances for severe
weather will be minimal. The HRRR indicates that western NM will
have the greatest chance of storms. Stronger thunderstorms can
produce heavy rain that can lead to localized flash flooding.
These storms can also produce gusty winds. Due to high pressure in
the region, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 100s in
the lowlands until the weekend, when they cool to the low 100s.
The 75th percentile was used for high temperatures due to it being
more accurate as of late. Friday will be the hottest day with El
Paso expected to be in the upper 100s. Friday will be a less
active day weather-wise, but isolated thunderstorms can not be
ruled out, especially in higher elevations. The weekend will be
similar, but with a better chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be
light and variable today and into the weekend as expected of a
high pressure region.

The ridge will shift eastward over the weekend, finally settling
in over the southern US early next week. This will allow for a
typical monsoonal pattern allowing moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to flow into the region. PWATs will remain high all next
week at 1.2 to 1.5 inches across the region and dewpoints will be
in the 50s. Continued hot temperatures will provide sufficient
lift for a chance of thunderstorms all next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period with variable
skies, bases ranging 100-150. Winds will remain mainly light and
variable though with a west to southwest favored direction. Speeds
will top out around 10 knots with a few higher gusts. The
challenging part of the forecast is determining SHRA/TSRA chances
and coverage. This morning`s cloud coverage is limiting heating,
which in turn is reducing overall instability for thunderstorms.
Countering that is a small disturbance south of DMN, just across
the Mexico border, which may in turn enhance thunderstorm chances.
I included mention of VCTS in TCS and DMN, but left mention of
thunder out of the rest. Main impacts of storms would be VIS
reductions from heavy rain and gusty winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Very low fire weather concerns for this forecast period. Min RH
values for the next couple of days will be between 15 to 20% for
the lowlands and 25 to 30% for higher elevations. Wind speeds will
be light and variable at 5 to 10 mph. The presence of a ridge over
the region is allowing for very hot temperatures in the mid to
upper 100s for the lowlands. Due to an abundance in the region,
there will be a chance for thunderstorms, especially in higher
elevations where orographic lifting can take place. These storms
can produce heavy rain that can lead to flash flooding as well as
gusty winds. This pattern will remain unchanged through the
weekend and into next week. Ventilation rates will be good for
this evening and Friday, transitioning to very good to excellent
for the weekend.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                  82 106  84 108 /  50  30  20  40
Sierra Blanca            73  99  74 101 /  40  40  40  40
Las Cruces               75 103  79 106 /  60  20  20  40
Alamogordo               71 101  74 103 /  40  20  10  30
Cloudcroft               55  78  58  79 /  50  40  20  50
Truth or Consequences    74 100  78 101 /  50  20  10  30
Silver City              66  94  69  96 /  50  20  10  60
Deming                   72 103  76 105 /  60  20  20  40
Lordsburg                71 100  73 102 /  40  20  10  50
West El Paso Metro       79 103  81 105 /  60  20  20  40
Dell City                75 102  76 103 /  30  30  20  30
Fort Hancock             76 105  77 107 /  50  30  40  40
Loma Linda               71  96  74  99 /  50  30  20  40
Fabens                   77 105  79 107 /  50  30  30  40
Santa Teresa             76 102  76 104 /  60  20  20  40
White Sands HQ           79 100  83 103 /  50  30  20  40
Jornada Range            71 101  75 104 /  50  20  20  40
Hatch                    71 103  76 106 /  50  20  20  40
Columbus                 76 103  79 104 /  70  20  20  40
Orogrande                74 100  76 103 /  50  20  20  40
Mayhill                  61  90  63  90 /  40  50  10  60
Mescalero                59  88  63  89 /  50  30  10  50
Timberon                 58  86  61  88 /  40  40  10  50
Winston                  60  90  64  92 /  50  30  10  60
Hillsboro                69  96  75  99 /  60  30  20  60
Spaceport                68  99  71 101 /  50  20  10  40
Lake Roberts             61  92  64  93 /  50  30  10  60
Hurley                   66  97  70  99 /  50  20  10  40
Cliff                    66 103  68 105 /  30  20  10  40
Mule Creek               68  95  70  97 /  20  20  10  40
Faywood                  68  95  72  97 /  60  20  20  50
Animas                   70 100  72 102 /  50  30  20  50
Hachita                  71 100  73 102 /  60  30  20  50
Antelope Wells           69  98  71 101 /  60  50  40  60
Cloverdale               66  93  67  96 /  60  40  30  50
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-
     410-411.

     Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.
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&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown/Ribail